Don't Panic

Wednesday, August 04, 2010

Some time ago, I recommended Spiked writer Frank Furedi's take on the Icelandic volcano eruption for its identification of precautionary (or "worst-case") thinking as the culprit behind a government response that did more harm than good. Now, deputy editor Bob Lyons chimes in with a retrospective on the Deepwater Horizon industrial accident, in which he considers a variety of lessons learned. His central such lesson is, "Don't panic."

In the early days after the accident, we were promised that the beaches of the southern US would be painted black by thick crude oil, that fisheries would be wrecked for years and the tourism industry destroyed. Yet there were always good reasons to believe that these things would not happen: the oil was being blasted out of a torn pipe one mile deep and 50 miles offshore in warm waters. A combination of natural dispersal, evaporation and bacterial decomposition meant that a lot of oil would never make it ashore. Also, the use of boons to block the oil, chemical dispersants and oil-skimming vessels helped to ensure that only a small fraction of the original leak made it to dry land.
Sadly, I didn't write about any of this, or I could now pat myself on the back and say, "I told you so." But I do remember talking about this with my father-in-law and the two of us agreeing that this wasn't going to turn out to be the long-term devastation of the Gulf that we seemed to keep hearing about from every media outlet.

One thing I find interesting is the following parallel between cynicism and worst-case thinking: Each is a naive position, as Ayn Rand once noted of cynicism, that arises from discarding ideals -- moral ideals in the case of cynicism, and the benevolent universe premise in the case of precautionary thinking.

In each case, the result is the same: One's thinking goes on a malevolent tear, often unchecked by facts that are easily available. After the volcanic eruption in Iceland, Europe stopped flying altogether despite the existence of known procedures for dealing with such a hazard to aviation. Likewise, news reporting, the public debate, and aspects of the government response to the oil spill in the Gulf, were all colored (and hampered or made worse than useless) by ignorance (or evasion) of known mitigating factors, not to mention of the importance of cheap energy to the economy and, therefore, our lives.

As Alex Epstein of the Ayn Rand Institute put it so well when discussing a column on the spill by Thomas Friedman of the New York Times:
One of the hallmarks of intellectual adulthood is the ability to put events in context -- to gather all the the relevant facts before drawing definitive conclusions and certainly before taking drastic, long-term action. A tragic accident involving offshore oil drilling (over 1/4 of domestic production is offshore) is certainly a case calling for adult thinking.
The stunted intellectual development of so many in our age -- so rampant that entire books have been written about its various manifestations -- is much more of a crisis than any mere accident can be.

It, too, however, can be overcome.

-- CAV

4 comments:

Steve D said...

“One thing I find interesting is the following parallel between cynicism and worst-case thinking”

That’s what I like about your blog – hardly have you finished describing the problem and already talking about principles (or more precisely a comparison based on a principle). Using these principles properly you can work out not only the essential similarities between the response different current events but also the essential differences.
The volcano and Deepwater seems like a pretty good example (discarding ideals). The position is naïve because (as I always try to point out to pessimists ) the world doesn’t in fact work that way. Both theory and history validate the benevolent universe premise (properly understood)

As a more practical point, given the history of other oil spills and the fact that the natural yearly leakage into the Gulf exceeds the Deepwater Horizon accident it was always pretty certain that this problem would disappear rather rapidly.

“Sadly, I didn't write about any of this, or I could now pat myself on the back and say, "I told you so."”

But based on principles and available facts you could have told us so and that’s what really matters.

“The stunted intellectual development of so many in our age”

The big picture is gone now for most people. The most direct cause I think is simple laziness or apathy (in some cases probably even stupidity) – People are just too lazy to track down facts they would only have to disregard anyway. Self deception is simply a lot less work if you don’t have knowledge to evade in the first place!

Gus Van Horn said...

"That's what I like about your blog – hardly have you finished describing the problem and already talking about principles (or more precisely a comparison based on a principle)."

That's a high compliment coming from you. Thanks.

"Both theory and history validate the benevolent universe premise (properly understood) ... People are just too lazy to track down facts they would only have to disregard anyway. Self deception is simply a lot less work if you don’t have knowledge to evade in the first place!"

It's not always completely laziness. People who think reason is impotent get caught in a viscous circle. It "didn't work" before, so why bother to become well-informed this time? (e.g., Look what happened! The evil oil companies are out for short-term gain. Why should we believe ANY drilling is safe?)

Of course, the flip side of the above is that it's easy to look naive or lazy to someone who has such a pessimistic view. Just consider how quickly scientists who are skeptical of AGW are written off if they receive any funding from oil companies. Or, for that matter, consider the fact that people who oppose the political agenda package-dealt with AGW are often regarded as lacking critical thinking skills. Notice that justice quickly goes by the wayside here: The universe is not amenable to reason, and those who say otherwise are, ipso facto, foolish.

Fortunately, there is free will: Some such people eventually realize on some level that they are wrong.

Steve D said...

“People who think reason is impotent get caught in a viscous circle.”
Yes, that’s a good point and it is what makes this attitude so difficult to combat. (Where is the best place to penetrate a circle?) It goes right back to improper epistemology and an incorrect view of the world.
“Fortunately, there is free will:”
This is both the answer and the danger – it’s why we can never guarantee to be victorious but it’s also what makes victory possible.

Gus Van Horn said...

Indeed.