tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8839412.post493506195329282063..comments2024-03-19T07:48:54.021-06:00Comments on Gus Van Horn: Fumento's Latest BarrageGus Van Hornhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05126749051688217781noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8839412.post-4821069188463515722020-07-08T17:09:43.831-06:002020-07-08T17:09:43.831-06:00Steve,
That's a good point, and reminds me th...Steve,<br /><br />That's a good point, and reminds me that mobile phone data showed people in the Southeast moving around a lot less before the stay-at-home-orders. <br /><br />And I noticed today at Walmart that practically everyone had a mask. There is no order and there didn't have to be: Everyone knows that Florida is a hot spot and is acting accordingly.<br /><br />It would be interesting to look at cases vs. lockdown orders -- except that nobody knows how many cases there actually are, and lots of the things we were ordered to do resemble what we might have done anyway. <br /><br />GusGus Van Hornhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05126749051688217781noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8839412.post-11183733831751767232020-07-08T13:47:29.015-06:002020-07-08T13:47:29.015-06:00One other issue wrt the lockdowns is that we need ...One other issue wrt the lockdowns is that we need to be careful of our definitions and comparisons. Do we mean the effect of the voluntary measures which business and individuals were already taking or any additional effect the government orders may have had? Did the government mandates even change behavior?<br /><br />For example, St. Louis County was essentially locked down well before the county order. Most non essential (and even some later deemed essential) businesses had voluntarily closed their doors and even now some places are still not in full operating mode (like my favorite Sushi restaurant). I didn't notice any change on the day of the order at any place I frequented. OTOH, most restaurants opened up 3-4 days before they were allowed to. For another example, the recent county mask order hasn't changed the percentage of people wearing masks as far as I can tell. I can say with certainty that there is no possibility that the police will enforce it. <br /><br />We can't do a controlled experiment and so I expect we will be arguing about many of these points for years. At least the difficulty of making a conclusion highlights the advantages of experimental vs. observational science.Steve Dnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8839412.post-4955678979962570382020-07-08T12:25:56.695-06:002020-07-08T12:25:56.695-06:00Steve,
Did it save lives overall? That's a gr...Steve,<br /><br />Did it save lives overall? That's a great question. For it to have saved lives overall (above lives lost due to delayed medical procedures or suicides due to businesses being crushed), the death rate from the steeper curve would have had to be very high and all at once, which I don't think would have happened. I'd guess deaths were mostly delayed, with probably some lives being saved by advances in care and possibly (but not likely) some being saved by not having to be triaged.<br /><br />Regarding the mutation issue, I was not aware of that, and had used the term to mean a second surge in cases in the same way I take most journalists have been using the term. <br /><br />GusGus Van Hornhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05126749051688217781noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8839412.post-66776984741865534522020-07-08T10:43:36.872-06:002020-07-08T10:43:36.872-06:00'I suspect that they probably overall reduced ...'I suspect that they probably overall reduced transmission rates.'<br /><br />Does that mean that the end of the day, they saved lives? It seems likely to me that the lockdowns drew out the disease over time (flattened the curve) and once we started to open up (as we had to or cease existing), infections would rise again and that in the end (unless we locked down for a long time), they did not prevent but only delayed infections and deaths and we would eventually end up at approximately the same spot. <br /><br />BTW, unless this is a mutated virus, it is not really correct to call this a second wave in the sense that H1N1 (Spanish flu) mutated and then the new more virulent strain swept across the world months after the first strain was finished. This is just the same wave spreading to areas it hasn't affected so far. Steve Dnoreply@blogger.com