Doublespeak

[Update: For related posts, go here.]

Memory fails me, but I recall reading about the great disparity between what leaders in the Arab world will say in English (for consumption by Western news media) and in Arabic (for consumption by their, often state-controlled, news media).

I have a similar example of the same from our pals across the Pacific, the Red Chinese. I have earlier noted their endorsement of John Kerry for President and their professed rationale, that Bush's military campaigns would weaken the United States. As it turns out, China did, in fact want Kerry to win, but for reasons of its own, which can be read about in detail here.

The article starts off with the gist, but makes a lot of interesting points besides. "The regime regarded Kerry as a self-absorbed, vacillating, weak and an unpatriotic man with little or no character. Just the kind of man they would like to see as president of the United States." In addition to recognizing Kerry as unpatriotic, the regime also recognized a fellow power-hungry leftist: "[H]e was not seen as a 'flip-flopper,' far from it. To those schooled in Marxist-Leninist principles anything that serves socialism is justified. Therefore Kerry's continual reversals, rationalisations, lies and denials were viewed as merely a means to conceal and advance his own view of America. A view that he knew the mass of Americans would find unacceptable." This was most easily seen in his constant harping on his military duty, which he did to conceal his pacifist past and dismal record on defense as a Senator, but the phoniness pervaded his whole campaign. In the vein of, "It takes one to know one," perhaps this would be far more obvious to a Marxist than the average American "moderate" who supported Kerry/hated Bush.

China is similarly better able to see the nature of the influence our Old Media have: "China's America watchers have been delving into the innards of the election result. ... The regime ... is acutely aware of the powerful influence that America's mainstream media wields in its political affairs. ... [T]hey have for many years considered this influence benign in that it indirectly served the interests of the regime. Kerry's defeat now suggests that this influence is on the wane." As a government that uses propaganda all the time, they also have an appreciation for the magnitude -- and the cause -- of the Bush win despite this influence: "Beijing firmly believes that were it not for the rise of what has become the new or alternative media Kerry would now be president. Moreover they also believe that the results conceal the true magnitude of the Bush victory. ... [After] mak[ing] adjustments for the 'blame America crowd' and those who were influenced by the media and the mass of anti-Bush propaganda[,] the anti-Kerry vote was massive."

This appreciation for the role of the New Media, which their compatriots here in our newsrooms still are trying to ignore or discount, makes them fear for the future of their own grip on power. It is interesting that the Chinese believe that, "the more informed the American public becomes the more it will shift toward the Republicans," they also see that their goose could get cooked by the same free market of ideas: "What if the net provides the Chinese people with alternative views and a source of news and facts that could undermine the regime's legitimacy? Expect intensified attempts to control the net."

The author of the article expects China to accommodate the Bush administration beyond minor "saber-rattling" over Taiwan, but in my opinion, this will only last as long as China regards itself as too weak to flex its muscle in Asia. Our ongoing war has one of our hands tied behind our back, after all. While this might pose an opportunity, I see China biding its time and further improving its economic and military position. It already is gatekeeper of the Panama Canal and therefore, already in a position to threaten us with missiles shipped across the Pacific and concealed there. It has also recently gained valuable recognition as a "market economy" by Brazil. In the meantime, it's already "rattling its saber" -- but with Japan. The Japanese seem to have detected a Chinese nuclear submarine patrolling in their territorial waters recently. China will hold back only as long as it has to before it will attempt to retake Taiwan and then at least attempt to cow Japan. This may not happen during the second Bush term, but it is something that the should nevertheless be in the back of his mind.

If we don't immediately (or ever) face a two front war with the Islamofascists and China, we could well have a showdown with China just as the former threat is waning.

Here's hoping that China gets its own New Media -- but at the same time, we shouldn't bank on it.

-- CAV

Updates

4-17-05: Added reciprocal link to index post.