IEEPA Loot Refund Update

The good news is that the Trump Administration is beginning to pay back (with interest) the $166 billion-plus it illegally took from Americans in import taxes under IEEPA -- a statute that doesn't even mention tariffs, and is intended to help the Chief Executive act quickly and decisively in real emergencies, anyway.

The bad news is that this is a bureaucratic process to begin with, and even if the President weren't opposed to returning the money, the process comes with real challenges:

The trade court's order appeared to set off a scramble among federal customs officials to put together a digital process for handling a crush of requests, according to legal filings. Those filings also revealed the technical challenges that the Trump administration faced in trying to return the money.

Among the many obstacles, the Trump administration said it had to stand up an entirely new system that could process refunds in bulk and disentangle illegal tariffs from legal ones on those same goods. At first, the government didn't even have a way to deposit money directly into the bank accounts of most importers, customs officials said.

As a result, the refund system that debuted on Monday, known as CAPE, can only process imports only at a certain point of the duty-paying process. That covers about 63 percent of import entries subject to IEEPA tariffs, the government previously said, though it plans to expand the system soon. In its prior public guidance, customs said it expected it would take 60 to 90 days to issue a refund once it accepts an importer's filing.

Katie Hilferty, who oversees the trade practice at the law firm Morgan Lewis, described the refund process as novel and complex, adding that she would be "pleasantly surprised" if refunds were paid as quickly as the government said. [bold added]

I hope some ace reporter remembers this the next time Trump makes one of his trademark, outlandish claims to have already solved/be able to solve/about to solve some big, long-running problem IMMEDIATELY or within two weeks.

Why can't he clean up his own messes that fast? (Trumpists, that is what is called a rhetorical question.)

-- CAV

Good Riddance, Autostart?

Issues and Insights reports that the Trump EPA is eliminating government "encouragement" of automakers to implement "autostart." That is, there will no longer be a tax credit for manufacturers who include that functionality in their products.

Good!

Autostart -- which kills and restarts your engine instead of letting it idle at traffic stops -- is a function that about two-thirds of new cars have in America. It's yet another annoyance rammed down our throats by the nanny state in the name of fighting the "climate crisis," and I turn it off every time I drive my wife's car. I also have no plans to replace my twelve-year old car any time soon in part because it doesn't do that at all.

(I also dislike cars that attempt to drive for you in the name of safety, but that's a post, perhaps, for another day.)

As the article indicates, most drivers are with me in finding the function annoying, but don't take their word for it: There's a healthy market out there for hardware that can bypass autostart altogether.

To its credit, the Trump Administration isn't making it illegal for car makers to put autostart in their cars, nor should it do so. (It can aid fuel economy in places that aren't so hot you need air conditioning almost year-round.) Again, it's just removing the Obama-era tax credit.

As usual when this Administration does something like this, I wonder how easy it will be for the next Democrat to undo the change, especially since, as it seems , it's just a regulatory change, like the repeal of the endangerment finding.

Maybe I should look for a newer car some time during the next couple of years...

-- CAV

Blog Roundup

A Friday Hodgepodge

1. "The Term 'State Capitalism' Wrongly Equates Freedom With Dictatorship," by Sam Weaver (New Ideal):

Although people today mainly associate fascism with racism and nationalism, [Ayn] Rand's point is that there is also a characteristically fascist type of control over the economy. In spite of still calling themselves "communist," the Chinese government exercises this same type of fascist control over many of its officially private businesses. And Trump's use of tariffs and regulation to control American businesses are an ominous step in America's journey toward the same destination.

1450 words/5 minutes

2. "How Do You Validate Aspirational Thoughts?," by Jean Moroney (Thinking Directions):

If you believe the aspirational idea is true, it's motivating to repeat it as an affirmation each day. Consciously reminding yourself of the belief refreshes your desire for the end and your confidence that you can take the necessary steps to reach it. By bringing the aspirational end to the forefront of awareness, you also see the opportunities for moving toward it -- today -- even if it is a long-range goal.

On the other hand, if you don't believe it's true, focusing on the aspirational thought will trigger objections and discouragement. And maybe frustration if you've been working toward it and failing, or guilt if you set a goal but haven't put in the effort. That will kill your interest in even thinking about the end.

2200 words/8 minutes

3. "How About a Genuine America-First Policy?," by Peter Schwartz (PeterSchwartz.com):

The movement Trump launched claims that his policies will "make America great again." Here, too, there is a prior question that demands an answer: What made America great in the first place? And it's the same answer: freedom.

America's exceptionalism rested on the premise that each individual has rights, and that the task of government is not to rule him but to protect those rights, by leaving him free. In the 18th century, a world dominated by despotic monarchies, this was a radical view. America was founded not simply on the idea that the people ought to elect their government representatives, but on the more fundamental idea that the individual has inalienable rights -- rights that may not be violated even by the wishes of a majority.

780 words/3 minutes

4. "What If Robots Take All the Jobs?," by Harry Binswanger (Value for Value):

Even with science-fictional super-robots, there will still be money changing hands and a price-system, just as now. You will still be paid for working -- in the field of your comparative advantage.

New kinds of jobs will appear, as they always have when technology advances. Ironically, most of the jobs people are afraid of losing -- such as programming jobs or truck-driving jobs -- were themselves created by technological advances. There used to be an American saying: "Adapt or die." Having the same kind of job as your father and grandfather did is not the American dream.

What new types of job will be created? I can no more project that than a man in 1956 could have projected that today there would be jobs in something called "social media"; or that money can be made by driving for Uber and by renting out living space through AirBnB.

1100 words/4 minutes

-- CAV

Free vs. Friction

Suazanne Lucas makes short work of explaining why free is quite often the wrong price for a promotional campaign, not to mention many other things:

The Mets made a nice gesture to compensate for the schedule change, but it didn't benefit the right people. The right people are the ones who want to come. Because the free tickets were quickly claimed, we can assume that many people would have liked to attend but couldn't because those who didn't value the tickets snapped them up, just in case.

This isn't unique to baseball games. I provide online training to HR professionals. When it's free, I can count on a 50 percent attendance rate. When people have to pay to attend, the attendance rate is 90 percent or higher.

The same goes for selling stuff on Facebook Marketplace. If I post something for free, I'll get numerous responses, and some people will go so far as to set a time to come pick up the object, only to no-show.

What you always want in transactions is a little bit of "friction" to attract the people who are truly interested in whatever you have to sell. Even if that thing is a job. [bold added]

The Facebook Marketplace example is interesting. My wife and I were considering selling off some old furniture recently, after having found nicer pieces for not much on a similar platform -- but we decided to donate instead because the price we'd likely fetch wouldn't justify the hassle of having to store the items at home and deal with the logistics of talking to potential buyers and then arranging to have the furniture moved.

I can only imagine having to deal with the deluge of people who'd take the items for free. That hassle is what the charity is relieving us of, and is quite an acceptable payment for getting the old furniture off our hands.

-- CAV

Called a Bluff: On Purpose or Not?

One cannot read any media without questioning every line, and the latest case in point is a piece in the New York Post that proclaims the President "brilliant" for "call[ing] Iran's bluff" with a blockade of the Straight of Hormuz.

In isolation, one could well imagine such a blockade being a useful and powerful tool to further cripple the Iranian regime, and being brilliant for turning its best weapon against it.

Not only that, the move may play out exactly that way. Despite concerns that ships were violating the blockade, for example, a Chinese ship has indeed turned around after appearing to flout it yesterday.

But in context?

Doing something this deliberate would be way out of character for Donald Trump who, to put it charitably, prefers to operate by the seat of his pants, and usually has the sole strategic interest of lining his own pockets. Remember that he was talking hours or days before of collecting tolls from the Strait with Iran as a partner. (!)

So much for the Post's contention that Trump is "honoring an American commitment to freedom of the seas that goes back to President Thomas Jefferson."

Since when has this clown honored any American commitment, including those he himself has made? Our NAFTA USMCA trading partners might like to have a word with you about that.

And then there's the further context of Trump's ever-changing war aims. As of right now, the Administration is hoping to accelerate the fall of strike a "Grand Bargain" with the Mullahs, as if they are fellow mafiosi, instead of ideologues who might be interested in surviving to maim and murder infidels another day.

We may yet end up having to give Trump grudging credit for ridding us of the Mullahs, but he is doing a great job of getting in the way of that, and such an outcome is not guaranteed despite our obscene military advantage over Iran.

A powerful tool still has to be wielded, and preferably by someone who knows what he is doing.

-- CAV

Trump Loses to a Sane Conservative in Hungary

In Hungary, where Trump had sent the Vice President to stump for fellow corrupt Putin fan-boi, Viktor Orban, opposition leader Peter Magyar's party won Sunday's elections so decisively that Magyar will be able to undo much of the harm Orban did to his country over the last sixteen years:

With nearly all ballots counted, Tisza was set to win 138 seats, more than the two-thirds majority Magyar would need to undo Orbán's constitutional overhaul and combat corruption.

"Together we liberated Hungary, we have reclaimed our country," Magyar told tens of thousands of supporters who danced and cheered near the Danube River in Budapest.

Record turnout underscored how many Hungarians saw the election as a watershed moment for their country.

Orbán was celebrated by conservatives across Europe and the U.S. as the mastermind of the "illiberal" model of democracy. But he lost favour at home with voters who grew weary of economic stagnation, international isolation and oligarchs amassing wealth.

"The election result is painful for us, but clear," Orbán said at the Fidesz campaign offices.

For all his many faults, at least Hungary's version of Donald Trump is capable of admitting defeat, and doing do like a man.

Magyar, a former protege of Orban, is what I would call a relatively sane conservative, notably being more in favor of free markets and cooperation with Europe, rather than its enemies in the Kremlin:

Magyar is often described as conservative liberal, combining market-oriented economic views with an emphasis on civic responsibility, rule of law, and national culture. He frequently states that his movement seeks to move beyond the "old left -- right divide" in Hungarian politics.

Magyar has expressed support for adopting the euro in Hungary once the necessary economic conditions are met. He argues that adopting the common currency would strengthen financial stability and Hungary's position within the European Union (EU).[53] Magyar defines himself as strongly pro-European, supporting deeper cooperation within the EU and alignment with Western democratic values. He has criticized the Orbán government's confrontational stance toward EU institutions and its close relations with Russia. [links omitted]

This is good news for Ukraine in particular and Europe in general, given that Magyar will stop Orban's policy of hindering European aid to Ukraine, and it should come as no surprise that Trump's endorsement didn't save Orban:

So what does it say that Orban has been so decisively repudiated by his own electorate -- and that other right-wing populists in Europe are seeing their popularity sag?

For one thing, it shows that Trump's support may be the kiss of death at a time when the U.S. president is recording record-low approval ratings: In a recent YouGov poll, just 14 percent of people in Britain and France had a favorable view of Trump. In Germany, it was 10 percent, and in Denmark, 3 percent. In Hungary, a poll by the Publicus Institute found that 59 percent of respondents believe that Trump is contributing more to global conflict than to peace. That's what Trump gets for his nonstop abuse of European allies [and] his threats to annex Greenland... [links removed]

New York Magazine nicely sums up the lesson for Trump, not that he'll learn anything:

Orbán found out Sunday that it is much harder to lie to people than he'd thought. His control of the television stations couldn't trick Hungarians into thinking their schools and hospitals weren't deteriorating. They didn't believe that only Ukraine and the European Union were to blame for their woes. They looked squarely at the man who had been in charge for 16 years in the way most Americans are now sizing up Trump, who can't blame Joe Biden or the Democrats for a country he has now governed for more than a year. Trump will not get the 16 years in power Orbán enjoyed, but he has dominated the mass consciousness of our nation for more than a decade. That is a very, very long time to think about Donald Trump. Americans are weary, and a growing number of his old supporters -- not the MAGA obsessives but simply those who weren't fond of Kamala Harris, Biden, or Hillary Clinton -- have buyer's remorse. They've had enough. They long for the day when they can treat Trump's party the way Hungarians drubbed Fidesz.

It is a shame that the Democrats will be the big winners here. So far, they seem just as incapable as Trump of offering anything positive to the American voter.

-- CAV

Four Neat Things

A Friday Hodgepodge

I may not post here next Monday or Tuesday owing to major personal obligations.

***

1. I once future-proofed an "obsolete" peripheral by running it with a virtual machine. That scanner is really nice to have at tax time!

Someone else has taken this approach to a whole new level with an unsupported, but perfectly good photo printer that he now shares with his non-Linux-running family:

How the web app works

The core of this app is the amazing v86, which emulates an x86 CPU -- and the whole machine around it -- in a browser. It compiles machine code to WebAssembly modules at runtime, which puts the whole arrangement just the right side of intolerably slow. I make it so this v86 machine runs Alpine Linux with CUPS, Gutenprint and supporting packages.

The browser connects to your printer over WebUSB, retrieving its make and model. It looks for the Gutenprint driver name that's the closest match using trigrams, and sends an lpadmin command over the emulated keyboard to install it.

Then, to print a file, it's uploaded into the emulated machine and an lp print command is sent. And, as if by magic, the raw binary print data produced in the emulated machine ends up at your printer.

The developer is optimistic that his web app will work for "a range of other Gutenprint-supported models."

2. My favorite tactical podcast, The Adam Clery Football Channel, has a nice, short history of soccer jersey numbering conventions (embedded below), starting with the first, odd failed attempt, and following the evolution of numbering conventions after the Football Association's initial assignments by position.

Why do Brits keep calling them center halves? They should know better. They invented the game!

A fun bonus is that fellow non-British Premier League fans who are bewildered by the Britishism centre half will learn why the term is applied by commentators to central defenders.

3. Fellow beer drinkers rejoice! There is now a crowdsourced effort called Pint Patrol that calls out establishments whose "pint" servings fall short.

4. If a trip to Japan beckons, you might wish to review this list of chopsticks faux pas.

I'd also peruse this discussion of same.

Commenters there note that not all of the items on the list are that bad, and that a few are common among Japanese diners themselves.

At least two are marked serious because they resemble parts of Buddhist funerary rituals. If I got nothing else from the list, I'd be sure to avoid those!

-- CAV