Four Random Things

A Friday Hodgepodge

1. From a news story about the "alien chemistry" found within a meteorite, here's what to do if a meteor strikes your home and you want to help scientific progress:

He then immediately preserved and documented the entire scene using disposable gloves and aluminum foil to place the meteorite fragments in glass jars.

The surviving rock weighed two pounds and was a rare, and especially interesting type.

Well done!

2. At In the Pipeline, Derek Lowe notes that researchers looking to use filtration instead of distillation in parts of the oil refining process were able to make use of a problem inherent in choosing a pore size to filter a substance containing molecules with a wide range of sizes:

... [O]ne thing that was noticed quickly was the the initial liquid coming through was still quite dark, but then lightened considerably for the rest of the run.

It turns out that a thin layer of higher-boiling material coats the insides of the pores of the PAN membranes as the first material is sent through, and analysis of the conditioned membranes suggests that this is made of up high-boiling long-chain alkanes, rather than polyaromatic material. The authors could actually wash this off with straight toluene, giving a PAN membrane with the original behavior that was apparently no worse for the treatment. It appears that the original PAN pores of around 15nm are narrowed to 2nm or below by this adsorption layer, and both the size and the chemical characteristics of the "new" pores are responsible for the separations.

So you just need to clog things up a bit, the right way, and you're in good shape. Who knew? ... [bold added]

As one commenter quips, "[G]ood as new is worse."

3. Continuing our theme of improvisation for a moment, I learned recently of a company claiming to make the world's largest zip tie:

To be clear, we're not just talking about length, although at 47 inches long it's certainly substantial. But extremely long zip ties already exist for things like wrapping large bundles of cable. This one is also cartoonishly thick, and features a similarly upscaled locking mechanism that allows it to hold up to 2,000 pounds, according to the company.

The monster ties can be had for $75 apiece, 12 for $800, or 15 for $1,700.

4. Moderna's new mRNA flu vaccine isn't just approved, it soon may be available at pharmacy near you:

Major insurers have previously indicated they will continue to cover vaccines. However, sign-off from a federal vaccine advisory panel can influence coverage in certain states, though some are moving away from requiring the panel's recommendation...

It's difficult to predict how broadly pharmacies would stock the newly approved mRNA flu vaccine in the absence of recommendations from ACIP and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, according to Brigid Groves, a vice president at the American Pharmacists Association. However, pharmacists' authority to order and administer vaccines in many states is no longer directly tied to ACIP recommendations, meaning "authority may be less of a barrier than it would have been in the past," she said.

It's good to know that there is resistance to the hostile takeover of the FDA by the anti-vaxx movement.

One advantage of the new vaccine, mentioned in the story, is that it will be easier and quicker to change it to match the prevalent flu strains in circulation than vaccines using older technology. This is because the latter take six months to manufacture.

Based on a quick, cursory search, I think the new vaccine matches the same strains as the old. Whether this is because the group in charge of selecting the target strain chose well, or there is some other reason, I have no idea.

-- CAV

Conspiracism vs. Creativity

Although Alison Green wasn't writing about conspiracism, a recent post of hers at Ask a Manager indirectly reminded me of that phenomenon, and the seemingly creative ways that conspiracists purport to explain what's "really going on."

Green takes a question about what might motivate instances of apparently mixed messages from management in a couple of instances the writer is aware of, and the immediate short answer is what caused me to think of conspiracism:

You're imagining this as all more cohesive than it is -- that there's a grand plan unifying all their actions, but very often there isn't.

Green tackles each of the scenarios in turn, and culminates in a list of typical reasons situations like the ones she was asked about occur:

• Plans changed, and the earlier conversations planning the change took place above their heads and they weren't even aware it was under discussion.
• Plans changed, and they were in those earlier conversations but didn't think it would go the way it went, or were simply juggling too many other things to game out exactly what it could end up meaning for everyone under them until it actually happened.
• Someone above them mentioned something that put pressure on them (and therefore their team) in a way they weren't anticipating earlier.
• Something happened that you don't know about that is changing how they're approaching something / how much they care about it (for example, they told you last month you didn't need to stress about expense report deadlines and they then discovered your coworker hadn't turned any in for a year and so now they're less laissez-faire about it).
• They're being pulled in multiple directions and so haven't sat down and thought things through as deliberately as you're imagining; they are managing through chaos.
• They messed up. Sometimes this may simply be because they're human, and other times they might not be a great (organized/thoughtful/attentive) manager.

Hanlon's Razor states that one should never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity. Not everything on the above list qualifies as stupidity, but many can look a lot like stupidity. All are things known to occur frequently enough that it makes sense to consider them as possible explanations before jumping to the conclusion that a puzzling event is motivated by some kind of plan.

Needless to say, similar kinds of things to the above non-exhaustive list can occur in other situations involving any kind of organization.

In light of the above, conspiracist "explanations" look far less creative than a truly deliberate consideration of the possible causes of a puzzling event.

-- CAV

Trump to Bring Back the Gas Line?

At RealClear Markets, Peter Grossman of the National Center for Energy Analytics considers President Trump's recent tirades against "unrealistic" gasoline prices and what an authoritarian ignoramus like him might do about them.

Along the way, a name increasingly familiar lately for other bad reasons comes up: Richard Nixon, whose brilliant solution to inflation, price controls, sounds like it would be right up Trump's alley.

I am old enough to remember gas lines and rationing fuel by allowing sales on certain days to even or odd tag numbers, but I didn't get the full picture of the carnage that wreaked: I was, after all, not even 10 back then.

Grossman fills us all in on what we can expect if Trump pulls such a stunt:

Refiners and retailers had to petition for price increases, and couldn't automatically pass on rising costs. Decisions were handed down at the start of the following month. As a result, many gas stations simply closed during the final week of each month while waiting for approval to raise prices. Allotments were also made monthly, and some stations had to close toward the end of the month having run through their supplies before they could replenish their stock. This only lengthened gas lines.

Because stations could not just pass along costs, government controls squeezed station profit margins. Consequently, hundreds of stations closed for good in 1973-4. [bold added]

Any economist who knows what he is talking about in the least will warn against price controls, but in the Trump era, will they be heard at all?

They're not part of Trump's inner circle, and he made it clear long ago that they aren't wanted in his party.

In a time when the brain-dead and those who pander to them mock "experts" and "elites" -- while praising blind faith in a single, not-too-bright individual -- it will be the voices who could easily spare us a lot of pain who are least likely to be heard.

Trump supporters would do well to consider how similar the idea that Trump will do it right sounds to the socialists who are even now saying This time, it will work!

And vice versa.

I won't be holding my breath.

-- CAV

SAVE Act a Logistical Nightmare

I oppose Trump's SAVE Act for reasons I have already elaborated upon. It is nevertheless interesting to see that even some of its supporters see its passage now as a disaster, as it is currently written.

At The Washington Examiner is an editorial supporting the legislation that points out that it is now too late to implement it in time for the midterms:

The legislation's timing provisions would make that task especially difficult. The act would take effect upon enactment rather than after a transition period. The Election Assistance Commission would have only 10 days to issue implementation guidance, and the legislation does not provide states with implementation funding. These administrative changes will take months to complete properly.

Election Day is Nov. 3, but the operational election calendar begins much earlier. Under federal law, states generally must transmit absentee ballots to military and overseas voters at least 45 days before a federal election. That deadline falls on Sept. 19.

Before then, officials must finalize ballot procedures, update databases, print instructions, test equipment, and train personnel. Early voting begins in some jurisdictions not long afterward. Registration activity is already underway, and voters are already relying on rules published by their states.

Changing those rules in August or September could create different requirements for people registering only weeks apart. It could also produce inconsistent implementation among states or even among counties within the same state, as officials interpret hurried federal guidance while defending their decisions in court. [bold added]

It is even more interesting that, surely knowing this, the President is pressuring the Senate to rush this bill through to passage.

Gosh, it's almost as if Trump wants to undermine confidence in the next election and so look justified in meddling with the results.

It's impractical! has never been a great way to fight against terrible policy, but when a policy is so bad that even some of its proponents say that, perhaps there is more reason to hope the bullet in the chamber misses.

-- CAV

'Reforming' the Jones Act?

With the current waiver of the Jones Act set to expire on August 16 and copious data indicating its repeal would be a boon to the U.S. economy, one might wonder why there isn't significant momentum behind repealing it once and for all.

The general answer -- that precious few of today's politicians are pro-free-market and that we're too deeply mired in a mixed economy for that to even be in the Overton Window -- will be obvious to most regulars here. If the minutiae of the pull peddling interests you, a recent post on the matter at The Abundance and Growth Blog will be of further interest.

That said, I'd also assign a great deal of the blame to our President, with his muddled and unprincipled views on economics. How could a protectionist like him muster the arguments or enthusiasm to use his bull pulpit to advantage despite him own dislike of the law?

So the post explains what it states plainly: "There aren't the votes for an outright repeal of the Jones Act, and there are not likely to be the votes any time soon."

That's the bad news.

The good news, such as it is, is that there might be bipartisan support for more limited reforms that could blunt some of its worst effects.

These measures are:

• An exemption for Puerto Rico, Hawaii, Alaska, Guam, and Northeast states reliant on heating oil, or perhaps just one of that set
• Repealing the build requirement of the act but not the crewing requirements, so that labor unions representing US seafarers continue to benefit, and perhaps even gain as the new foreign-built ships hire their members
• Pairing adjustments to the act with buyout offers to current US-based shipbuilders, so those affected have resources to choose a new career path and the transition is truly win-win
• Pairing changes to the act with subsidies to US-based shipbuilders akin to those in the SHIPS for America Act, so US firms face more competition but also have more resources with which to face it

Given how deadly the Jones Act has been for American shipbuilding (and how little government subsidies help the subsidized), I hate the last of these, but the others would be a real improvement, as much as they all leave to be desired.

-- CAV

Four Wins

A Friday Hodgepodge

Open Bigotry as Opportunity

Letters from readers of Miss Manners and Prudence each show the potential value of meeting bigotry with a dignified response.

One of these letters, to Miss Manners from an American who frequently travels abroad, deals with a common complaint: people who make snide comments about "Americans" at our expense.

Miss Manners replies in part:

As such comments are almost certainly based on the age-old cliche that all Americans are rude or bullies, they ignore the hypocrisy that only rude bullies would offer such an insult to a guest in their country.

The proper response is therefore to silently, but politely, make clear that you know you have been insulted. If you can excuse yourself, do so. If not, look stern and ignore the speaker for a time. This forces others to question their assumptions both about Americans and about themselves -- which will be far better for you than getting into a fight in a foreign country. [bold added]

In the second letter, a reader contributes his perspective to advice she gave to a gay couple about possibly attending a family reunion together. He says in part:

[A]ll the times we calmly showed up and were just nice and pleasant had an effect on my whole religious family. They couldn't keep up the bigotry in the face of two decent and kind guys just living their lives authentically. My relationship with my parents became really close, and my nieces and nephews started telling their parents that they didn't want to listen to them bad-talking their uncle when they preached "love one another" in church, but then talk hatefully about their own brother.

...

I would tell the writer not to do anything they don't think they can handle or that would make them feel unsafe, but sometimes it is the simple act of showing up and being yourselves that brings people around and forces them to confront their bigotry. Plus, you never know which niece or nephew might desperately need to see you living your authentic lives to give them hope and courage to weather their own situation... [bold added]

This is a prime example of the approach Miss Manners advises paying off in getting people to overcome dehumanizing prejudices. (The corollary of politely letting an ass know you've been insulted is to enjoy the company of those who aren't going along with it.)

As the emphasis on safety in the second letter indicates, everyone must make a risk calculation about such situations, especially when they're avoidable, but standing up for oneself in the face of bigotry is a way to improve the world one lives in small, but appreciable ways.

-- CAV