Teixeira on '28

Yesterday, I commented on the likelihood of the Democrats learning the wrong lessons from their defeat in the '24 elections.

That is a bleak possibility indeed, but the fact remains that, at least as of now, no Trump-like figure has gutted the party apparatus, along with having a big-enough cultish following to guarantee making its primaries a mere formality. If things remain this way, what might a best-case scenario look like for the '28 election, assuming the Republicans put up another Trumpist or a Christian Nationalist?

Ruy Teixeira is (or leans) "Progressive," but nevertheless seems to have a good feel for what centrist voters can tolerate or support. He recently wrote a piece titled "Your 2028 Democratic Presidential Contenders!", of which a slightly shorter version also appeared at The Free Press.

Within, he speculates on what kinds of candidates might arise, grouping them into the following categories (I've added an exemplar from his description of each category in parentheses.):

• Let's do it all over again! (Kamala Harris)
• All resistance, all the time. (Gavin Newsom)
• There's no such thing as being too progressive. (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)
• Moderation is a beautiful thing. (Josh Shapiro)
• Let's try something different. (Ruben Gallego)

Teixeira gives a brief description of each category, but from my pro-capitalist perspective, his five categories collapse into two.

Given that Joe Biden ran as a centrist, but governed as a progressive, I'd combine Let's do it all over again! with There's no such thing as being too progressive. In addition, the left usually goes bat shit crazy over Trump for (a) the wrong reasons and prematurely at that, and (b) the right reasons and weakly/hypocritically at that.

As an example of the first, many leftists seem convinced that Trump is about to end Social Security. He should, and there are ways to do that which don't constitute throwing widows and orphans into the streets, but he has stated repeatedly that he won't, and he knows that MAGA doesn't want him to touch that program.

As an example of the second, consider their apoplexy about SignalGate as compared to the crickets about, say, Hillary Clinton's use of a private email server as Secretary of State. Partisans almost uniformly will say What about the other official as if this excuses the sins of their own people when, in fact, both are outrages, and outrages aren't okay just because "our guys" do them.

To this first group, I'd throw in All resistance, all the time. This strategy does not offer a positive to voters, and see again my comments on progressive anger about Trump above. There are many, many very good reasons to oppose Trump that aren't knee-jerk or tribal, and which therefore don't need Trump living rent-free in someone's head 24/7 -- nor can they or should they similarly form the entire basis for a campaign.

That said, Teixeira does warn that a bad-enough Trump term could make it possible for "even AOC" to win.

I am having trouble seeing a difference between Moderation is a beautiful thing and Let's try something different, and am inclined to call any of these Possibly sane. In a recent conversation with a friend, he mooted Josh Shapiro and I Jared Polis -- whom Teixeira places in Moderation and Something Different respectively as candidates we might be able to support, with qualifications.

In sum, I see some hope that a reasonable candidate could run against the Trump Party nominee in 2028, but am unsure such a candidate would win the nomination for reasons I elaborated on yesterday.

-- CAV