China Roundup

There has been quite a bit concerning China in the news and in the blogosphere over the past couple of days. Here's a quick roundup. [Update: For related posts, go here.]

1. The Counterterrorism Blog discusses two interrelated espionage threats to the United States. The first is the potential for abuse by foreign intelligence agencies of certain types of visas and the second is the fact that Chinese intelligence is operating front companies to collect technology-related intelligence, as described in the article , "China's Secret War." From the blog:

[T]hese visas can be abused by hostile foreign intelligence services and terrorist organizations. On the heels of this post comes an excellent article published March 31 in FrontPage Magazine by Patrick Devenny, a Henry M. Jackson National Security Fellow at the Center for Security Policy in Washington, DC. The article, titled, “China’s Secret War,” describes in notable detail the ongoing PRC espionage efforts within and against the United States.

The espionage efforts Mr. Devenny describes include the utilization of an estimated three thousand “front companies” operating within the United States with links to Chinese Intelligence. These companies are often involved in the illicit transfer of technology, which is ultimately destined to China’s military.

2. Some good news, via Matt Drudge, is that U. S. officialdom is finally starting to take note of the threat posed by China's military buildup.

A decade ago, U.S. military planners dismissed the threat of a Chinese attack against Taiwan as a 160-kilometer infantry swim. Now, the Pentagon believes that China has purchased or built enough amphibious assault ships, submarines, fighter jets and short-range missiles to pose an immediate threat to Taiwan and to any American force that might come to Taiwan's aid.

But if you read the rest, the bad news is that things have already had to get very bad to get the attention of our leaders.

3. Insofar as China's actions in Asia have been concerned, I have been focused on its hostile moves against Taiwan. But how has it behaved towards Hong Kong? If they try to pacify the Taiwanese and the world after a takeover by promising "one country, two systems," will they deliver?

... Beijing has other ideas. On July 1, 2003, the sixth anniversary of the handover, nearly a million people took to Hong Kong's streets in a peaceful protest against an anti-subversion bill that would have eroded freedom of the press, of religion, and of association. The demonstration led to a postponement of the bill, and ultimately to its withdrawal, as well as to the resignation of the Secretary for Security, who was responsible for it.

But that demonstration also spurred a major change in China's policy towards Hong Kong. Until then, interference from China was covert and subtle, so that the public perception was that Hong Kong's Chief Executive, Tung Chee-hwa, was in charge. After the demonstration, China's government adopted a hands-on approach, letting the people of Hong Kong know who the boss really is.

Thus, on April 26, 2004, China announced its unilateral decision that Hong Kong is not to have democracy in 2007 without saying when Hong Kong will have it.

Not by the looks of it. But is anyone really surprised by this?

4. Not unrelated to the Chinese threat is its heavy involvement in Latin America. Although this article focuses more on Cuba, it echoes some of my concerns with Venezuela. Furthermore, it points out Cuba's strategic value to China, something that I hadn't thought very much about.

Recent actions by the Chinese in the Western Hemisphere are designed to secure state-sponsored outposts at strategic “choke” points that one day can be used by Beijing to place acute pressure on the U.S. and its allies. In this regard, recent comments made by Chinese sympathizers such as Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez that a “new geopolitical map of alliances is emerging” support a troubling trend of inflammatory comments by Latin leaders. Otto Reich, a Cuban-born U.S. diplomat under the first President Bush stated in March,

“The U.S. needs a secure and prosperous hemisphere not only to ensure a peaceful neighborhood in which to live, but also to be able to project its power to the farthest reaches of the globe.” ...

One final question for Washington. If an aggressive, Cold War-era Soviet Union made bilateral defense agreements with countries in Latin America; purchased large quantities of vital raw materials from Canada; obtained vast amounts of crude oil from Venezuela; and established ports in Cuba and Panama, would America have stood by and watched?

Excellent question.

5. And finally, one concern I blogged about recently was that Chavez's brand of populism might spread to Mexico, where the leftist mayor of Mexico City, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, is a favorite to win the next presidential election. Well, it seems that he may be blocked altogether. This may or may not be good news in the long term, depending on what else happens, but I'd rather not see him get elected any time soon, if at all. From the Houston Chronicle:

Ignoring a protest by more than 150,000 of his supporters in the Mexican capital's central plaza, Congress voted Thursday to strip the legal immunity from a leading presidential candidate, exposing him to criminal charges and threatening to destroy his political career.

With the vote, Mexico City Mayor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador was suspended from his municipal post and likely will be prevented from running in next year's presidential elections, throwing wide open the contest to succeed President Vicente Fox.

The mayor faces federal charges related to his administration's failure to obey a court order in 2001 to stop construction of an access road to a private hospital. Attempts to prosecute him have angered many Mexicans and led some analysts to warn of permanent damage to the country's fledgling democracy.

In light of an article I pointed to recently, the massive protests are an unfortunate portent: Lopez Obrador may be more popular than I supposed.

6. For my last posting on the Chinese-Latin American threat, which includes an index to other related posts, go here.

-- CAV

Updates

Today: Added Hong Kong story that had been accidentally left out.
4-13-05: Fixed formatting errors. (What is it with Blogger and paragraph breaks inside quotes, anyway?)
4-17-05: Added reciprocal link to index post.