Perry: Down, Not Out

>> Monday, October 31, 2011

Over at Slate, political handicapper John Dickerson questions the conventional wisdom that Rick Perry was positioning his campaign for a "scorched-earth campaign" against Mitt Romney when he recently brought in some new campaign advisors, and concludes that Perry likely has something else in mind:

In the 2008 Democratic primary, Hillary Clinton and her campaign tried to take down Barack Obama by saying it was "time to pick a president." In other words: End your dalliance with the person who makes you feel good and start thinking about who has the attributes necessary to handle the job. That didn't work for her, but the non-Cain candidates hope a version of that same mindset will eventually kick in and give voters second thoughts about Cain.
When that moment comes, a candidate like Perry has to be ready. Right now he's got some work to do. In that same focus group, when attendees were asked to compare Perry to a character from fifth grade, they said "bully." (If only they'd meant it the way Teddy Roosevelt did.)
I think Dickerson's reasoning is sound, except he may have a tin ear for what a closer examination of Perry's record as a religious statist might sound like to the Tea Party. For example, Dickerson thinks Perry should play up his record of legislating Christian morality.

Of course, since this is the GOP, such a problem might not stand out against the other candidates, or for an electorate that does not see the conflict between religion and our secular state. This would mean that, unfortunately, Dickerson's error would be rendered moot.

-- CAV

--- In Other News ---

Dave Kellog on the "joys" of both being a contrarian and being correct, when almost everyone else around you is wrong:
[B]eing a naysayer isn't fun work: for three years you sound like a whining, doubting-Thomas constantly on the back foot, constantly playing defense and then one day you're proven right. But there's no joy in it. And the naysaying doesn't help sell newspapers so you don't get much press coverage. And, in the end, all people remember is that "MicroStrategy was pretty cool back in the day" and "Dave's a grump."
Three cheers for those to whom truth is dearer than mere popularity!

Are the 2011-2012 Indianapolis Colts an eloquent, if very ugly, testimony to the greatness of Peyton Manning? Sports writer Bob Kravitz thinks so: "Dear Peyton: Every criticism I've leveled at you, I take it all back. It's now apparent you've been carrying a terrible team on your back for all those years."

Oh, great. Microsoft seems to have figured out a cute way to make it more difficult to install Linux on new computers. I am behind all efforts to persuade hardware vendors to make it easy to choose my own operating system, but will be vehemently opposed to any effort to coerce them (or Microsoft) to do so. There is a right to choose an operating system, but not to force someone else to make that choice easy (or even possible) for me.

Read more...

10-29-11 Hodgepodge

>> Saturday, October 29, 2011

Yes, but ...

Judging by my In-box, an old chain email purporting to offer easy, life-saving advice has either made a comeback, or it never really went away. Regarding cough CPR, Snopes.com offers the following caveat:

If you knew exactly what you were doing, this procedure might help save your life. If, however, you were to attempt cough CPR at the wrong time (because you misjudged the kind of cardiac event being experienced) or went about it in the wrong way, it could make matters worse.
Here's some potentially life-saving advice: View all unsolicited medical tips, particularly from laymen, skeptically. Even advice that is good under some circumstances can be very bad when misapplied due to incomplete knowledge. The life you save or improve may be your own.

Weekend Reading

"When we dress up, we have the chance to 'act out' parts of ourselves that we normally keep private." -- Michael Hurd, in "The Psychology of Disguise", at DrHurd.com

"As protestors finally confront the corporations they so vehemently despise, their supposed enemies are revealed not as oppressors, but as everyday people; bar patrons, bank tellers, and restaurateurs each engaging in voluntary trade." -- Jonathan Hoenig, in "In Defense of Corporations", at SmartMoney

My Two Cents

Hoenig's observations, along with the story below, make me almost glad the OWS protests are happening -- and getting so much undeserved media coverage.

OWS: No Freeloaders (!)

The OWS kitchen staff misses or scorns an opportunity to achieve real intellectual growth.
The Occupy Wall Street volunteer kitchen staff launched a "counter" revolution yesterday -- because they’re angry about working 18-hour days to provide food for "professional homeless" people and ex-cons masquerading as protesters.

For three days beginning tomorrow, the cooks will serve only brown rice and other spartan grub instead of the usual menu of organic chicken and vegetables, spaghetti bolognese, and roasted beet and sheep's-milk-cheese salad.

They will also provide directions to local soup kitchens for the vagrants, criminals and other freeloaders who have been descending on Zuccotti Park in increasing numbers every day. [link dropped] 
If, as Ayn Rand once put it, "He who fights for the future lives in it today," these OWS protestors have just unwittingly issued a scathing indictment of their own cause.

-- CAV

Read more...

Friday Four

>> Friday, October 28, 2011

Watching The League is an order of magnitude funnier when your baby daughter is sleeping on your chest and you don't want to wake her. In fact, I'd say it's about as close to cutting up behind the nuns' backs in Catholic grade school as I've ever been since.

You're wallet's about to get thinner, again (but in a good way): Google has come up with a loyalty punchcard app that I hope businesses with loyalty punchcard programs will support. As a big fan of thin wallets, I already use an All-Ett and already have all my scannable loyalty cards on my phone in CardStar.

Over email some time back, Snedcat pointed me to a bizarre and strangely intriguing -- yet somewhat educational -- interview with Noam Chomsky, saying, "It's ironic that all the hip young hipsters worship such an utter square." Money quote from interviewer Jeff Jetton: "[T]he man has none of the animation, the expression that you'd expect from someone so closely affiliated with the field of linguistics." Money quote from Chomsky, in response to the question of whether he is a foodie: "Am I a… ? Meaning?" "Square" isn't the half of it: They should have titled this, "Interview with a Zombie."

My favorite English Premier League team, Arsenal, seems to be recovering from a horrendous start to its season, but this weekend's match against Chelsea will be a gut check at the very least. Curious at some point about why manager Arsène Wenger never really was on the hot seat, I read about him and learned that he's the "idol" of Billy Beane, of Moneyball fame, who admires his ability to recognize and build on under-appreciated talent.

A notable example was the purchase of Nicolas Anelka from Paris Saint-Germain for only £500,000 and his subsequent sale to Real Madrid just two years later for £23.5 million. This enabled Wenger to buy three players, Thierry Henry, Robert Pirès, and Sylvain Wiltord, who all played significant roles for the first team in the early 2000s. The sale also helped the club fund [its] new training centre at London Colney. [hyperlinks and footnotes removed] 
Moneyball has, incidentally, been made into a movie, and at least two HBLers have strongly recommended it, one despite not being a baseball fan.

-- CAV

Read more...

The Bullies in Charge

>> Thursday, October 27, 2011

Thomas Sowell notes that the current crusade against bullying in government schools fails to live up to its name, even under cursory examination:

The current media and political crusade against "bullying" in schools seems likewise to be based on what groups are in vogue at the moment. For years, there have been local newspaper stories about black kids in schools in New York and Philadelphia beating up Asian classmates, some beaten so badly as to require medical treatment.

But the national media hear no evil, see no evil and speak no evil. Asian Americans are not in vogue today, just as blacks were not in vogue in the 1920s.

Meanwhile, the media are focused on bullying directed against youngsters who are homosexual. Gays are in vogue.
Sowell then goes on to note that, as with other past anti-discrimination policies, the focus of this latest crusade is on speech, and results in restrictions on what members of certain demographic groups can and can not say:
Women can say anything they want to men, or blacks to whites, with impunity. But strong words in the other direction can bring down on students the wrath of the campus thought police -- as well as punishments that can extend to suspension or expulsion.

Is this what we want in our public schools?
I was with Sowell until the last sentence: I think he should be asking, "Do we want government-run schools at all?" For one thing, a socialized educational sector makes parents powerless to take action to protect their own children. For another, government schools are inherently bad at preventing bullying.

Clearly, some "public" government schools fail miserably to prevent even the worst kinds of bullying, and so will some private schools. But, unlike today's feudal system, in which transferring a student out of a dysfunctional school is nearly impossible (for legal and economic reasons), a fully private educational sector would make any parent better able to withdraw his child from or altogether avoid schools with reputations for such problems.

Worse, and even setting aside the many well-intentioned, but discriminatory anti-discrimination laws we have on the books (which exacerbate this problem), government institutions are inherently bad at policing non-criminal behavior that may, in certain contexts, be objectionable. This is because the sole proper purpose of a government is to protect individual rights, which include freedom of speech, as Sowell notes.

In a fully private educational system, a school might properly decide to punish children for using epithets as insults or intimidation, since such behavior would detract from its mission to educate its pupils. Parents, aware of such rules, may judge whether the school is really fostering a good educational environment or is merely attempting to indoctrinate the children, and act accordingly.

But a public school is a government institution, and if it attempts to proscribe or prescribe behavior (outside of, for example, punishing or preventing actual crime), it is necessarily in the position, as a part of the government, of forcing these rules on its pupils (and on parents, whether they agree or disagree with them), and, in the process, violating individual rights. But schools, as educational institutions, clearly have to have some rules. Thus a bad precedent is set by the very fact that the government is running a school and has had to dictate rules from the outset.

Because of this precedent, choices like the following come up: protect Asian students from being beaten up by black students or raise the legitimate specter of Jim Crow by keeping a sharp eye on your black students; and watch out for your gay students or blanket-violate freedom of speech (in the name of having a legally-consistent policy). Such schools are damned-if-they-do and damned-if-they-don't, and which action they take (since the principle of non-initiation of force went out the window from the outset) will be a function of which political pressure group is in power.

Bullying happens any time large numbers of children are gathered together, but the best way to keep it to a minimal level (and train children out of it) is to get the government out of education. In a government education system, with its blurred boundary between proper rules and improper laws, administrators and faculty are placed in the position of bullies. What they do is not guided by proper principles of government or education, and so the best will be hamstrung and the worst unleashed.

-- CAV

Read more...

The Real Luddites

>> Wednesday, October 26, 2011

David Harsanyi very nicely demonstrates why leftists should try looking in the mirror when they feel the urge to demonize their opponents as "Luddites." Harsanyi takes global warming hysteria as his starting point, looks at the disdain on the part of many Demorcrats for the efficiency that technology brings us akong the way, and ends with the "occupy" squatters:

Luddites on the streets of Manhattan can demonize big oil, big food and big pharma all day long. They can decry profit as if Satan himself invented the notion. Yet when the multinational firm GlaxoSmithKline announces, as it did last week, that it has come up with the first effective vaccine for malaria, you can bet that it would never have happened in the system they propose. And if the vaccine is successful, the company will have done more good for the world than a million marches about the evils of capitalism could ever hope to produce.

What irks Robinson, Matthews and others like them is not that people do not accept "science," but that they won’t accept the statist solutions tied to that science. Moreover, a Luddite opposes capitalism. A skeptic only asks questions.
I like the way he disposes of two leftist non-sequiturs in his last paragraph: The statist solutions don't follow from the science, and disagreements with leftist dicta do not equal a rejection of science or technology.

--- In Other News ---

Via HBL and Amit Ghate are two amusing looks at the "occupy" squatters getting exactly what they deserve. The headline in the second sums it all up pretty well: "The Organizers vs. the Organized." Anyone with even the most tenuous contact with reality ends up becoming "The Man" when he attempts to impose any kind of order, like cleaning up the camps or getting the idiot drummers to stop at night to avoid alienating the very people they're allegedly trying to sway.

Jeff Atwood of Coding Horror writes a rather benevolent piece on parenthood. I like his idea that, in a sense, "Children give the first four years of your life back to you."

Here's a cautionary tale about hiring, "How to Hire an Idiot", that applies more broadly to any human relationship, and which I'd summarize in the words of an old boss: "You get what you inspect." "He was a friggin VP of business development for a $100 million company! He must know what he's saying, right?" Judging other people is hard enough without allowing mere credentials to stand in the way of easily-obtainable data.

Updates

Today: Minor edits. 

Read more...

Stalled by Distraction

>> Tuesday, October 25, 2011

The fact that I'm having "one of those mornings" reminds me of a short post I saw over at the Endeavour some time ago, in which John Cook notes that one of the best ways to "handicap intelligence" is "[w]ith interruptions." This is a point I've commented on indirectly before, and it is especially true for projects requiring a great deal of integrative effort, so much so that even a scheduled interruption can sometimes scuttle a day's work.

Regarding the former, Paul Graham once noted:

When you're operating on the maker's schedule, meetings are a disaster. A single meeting can blow a whole afternoon, by breaking it into two pieces each too small to do anything hard in. Plus you have to remember to go to the meeting. That's no problem for someone on the manager's schedule. There's always something coming on the next hour; the only question is what. But when someone on the maker's schedule has a meeting, they have to think about it. [bold added]
And why are the two pieces too small to do anything with? John Cook quotes Graham on that matter:
The danger of a distraction depends not on how long it is, but on how much it scrambles your brain. A programmer can leave the office and go and get a sandwich without losing the code in his head. But the wrong kind of interruption can wipe your brain in 30 seconds.
Distractions and interruptions are inevitable, and sometimes, as Cook notes, even beneficial. Among other things, they can force us to step back for a moment to see a problem from a new perspective, or allow our minds to work on something subconsciously for a while.

My brief reflection on interruptions inspires three nascent, related thoughts that I will, alas, be unable to pursue further at just this moment: (1) I have spoken in the past of "America's collective lobotomization by pragmatism." A mind needs not just the opportunity, but the correct method to function at its best. (2) I agree with Valery Publius that such social media as Twitter aren't to blame for the vacuousness of our current time. In addition, one choice many people make that does cause them to seem (or become) vacuous is to allow themselves to be distracted by such things on a continual basis. (3) Regarding how interruptions impact me, personally, I'm going to have to think back on grad school a bit: I had to work around lots of distractions then, and I'm going to want to start remembering what worked for me, pronto!

-- CAV

P.S. Gus Van Horn Turns Seven: Speaking of dropping the mental ball, today marks my seventh year of blogging. As I said last year:
Although most of my writing here is driven by my own curiosity, knowing that people come here expecting to see something new each day has helped me in a similar way to having a running buddy. So, thank you, regular readers! You have been great running buddies.

In addition to a good number of "regulars," I have had random people from the gamut of occupations -- Starbucks baristas, car salesmen, and entrepreneurs just to name a few -- chime in on discussion threads, always with something germane to add. Thank you, commenters and occasional visitors!

Over the years, this routine has led to my making many new friends and acquaintances, and reviving a few other, older friendships. In the process, I have: received many tips on potentially "blogworthy" material; batted ideas around in interesting email exchanges; and have had lots of advice about things I can also use away from the keyboard, like restaurant recommendations and advice on time management. ... Thank you friends and fellow bloggers!

I'll close by thanking my family for their support. This goes especially for my wife, who puts up with my routine day in and day out, and in very good humor, at that.
Thanks again!

Read more...

Freedom Poverty

>> Monday, October 24, 2011

Forbes contributor Patrick Michaels discusses an interesting phenomenon taking place in Europe: As the worldwide depression continues to worsen, various "green" government schemes are going by the wayside. The whole article is worth reading, but I wish to comment briefly on a couple of points.

First, I think that Michaels misses an opportunity to learn a little bit more from history when he opens with the following:

History ... repeatedly shows that environmental protection is a luxury good. When per-capita income reaches some threshold, the citizenry tire of opaque air and sleazy waters, various agencies and permanent bureaucracies sprout, and, as long as times are good, regulation is good.

...

This all splatters to a halt when economies go south. And the crash can be especially jarring if greenness is one of the causes. Thanks in no small part to the debacle in Europe, in a very few recent weeks, we have witnessed the great green crack-up.
Michaels is right that, in a sense, such regulations are a luxury, but he falls too easily into the trap of giving false credence to the idea that capitalism causes pollution. As a result, he wrongly concedes that such regulations are also, in some sense, a necessity.

Regarding capitalism's assumed deficiencies in the clean air department, Alex Epstein of the Ayn Rand Institute has pointed out that pollution couldn't become such a problem under a system in which property rights are properly defined and protected under the law:
Under a pure capitalist system, as described in philosopher Ayn Rand's works, everything is privately owned. As a consequence, nature is preserved only to the extent that it benefits man. Companies cannot dump waste into rivers at whim, because those rivers are the property of someone else. The same applies to any other form of pollution that is harmful to man -- nobody wants to pollute their own property, and no one is allowed to pollute anyone else's, so waste management is handled in a very clean fashion.
No massive tomes of regulations required; and such "luxuries" as clean air arise in the same way that the entire cornucopia of other capitalist luxuries arise -- as a consequence of men being barred from harming each other, and so free to make (and act on) their best judgement. It is hardly a coincidence that, as I wish Michaels had noted, pollution in the communist world was much worse in many respects than it was in the relatively free non-communist world.

The second point follows from the first. When a government is premised not on protecting individual rights, but on prescribing how people are to act, the misguided crusades of its officialdom can, and often do, become threats to the quality of our lives when they don't threaten our very lives. In this vein, Michaels provides us with an excellent example of a "luxury" we can do without:
Guess what?  Electricity prices [due to mandated solar power subsidies (in Britain!)] have gone through the roof.  The average U.K. household bill is a tad under $200 per month, and so the thermostat goes down. It’s pretty chilly there for much of the year, and a cold house has consequences.  A study just came out today on the health costs of what they call "fuel poverty", commissioned by the Energy and Climate Change Secretary (don't we need one of  those?), Chris Huhne.  Bottom line: the chill from green taxes is now killing more Brits per year than car crashes. [bold added]
The biggest threat to our environment -- properly understood as the conditions, including freedom, that human beings require to live -- isn't "too much" government, but improper government. (You do need government to enforce property rights, for example.) The "energy poverty" seen in Britain is a real problem, but it is only a symptom of its underlying freedom poverty.

-- CAV

Read more...

10-22-11 Hodgepodge

>> Saturday, October 22, 2011

FINO Republicans

Randy Barnett of the Volokh Conspiracy notes an unfortunate strategy taken by some Republicans in their quest for medical malpractice reform (at the moment, via an amendment tacked on to Obama's "jobs" bill).

Barnett first quotes Attorney Carrie Severino:

The law's own justification for its constitutional authority should be chilling to anyone committed to limited federal power. The bill’s findings state that health care and health insurance are industries that "affect interstate commerce," and conclude that Congress therefore has Commerce Clause power to regulate them -- even when it involves an in-state transaction between a doctor and patient, governed by in-state medical malpractice laws. Is there any industry that couldn't be found to have an effect on interstate commerce?
And then, after excerpting the from the amendment itself, Barnett adds, "Senate Republicans are claiming that Congress has power over the judiciary of the states because state courts are an activity that "affect[s] commerce."

In one fell swoop, this amendment would damage part of our system of governmental checks and balances, by threatening the independence of state judiciaries and erode the accidental protection of freedom in some states via "states' rights." (That said, I do not regard "states' rights" as a legitimate concept apart from individual rights.)

Barnett proposes Federalist-in-Name-Only (FINO) Republicans as a label for any Republican who supports such a measure.

Weekend Reading

"This false alternative ... arises from a misplaced confidence in government and the erroneous belief in a fixed quantity of available healthcare resources." -- Beth Haynes, in "False Dichotomy: ObamaCare or Let Them Die" at Townhall

"The FDIC is the single biggest pretext for government interference in the financial sector." -- Wendy Milling, in "Why FAS 166 and 167 Rules Are Wrong" at RealClear Markets

"It might take a little work and some concerted habit-breaking, but self-pity can be eradicated by affirming life and finding reasons to love it." -- Michael Hurd, in "More about Pity and Contempt" at DrHurd.com

"Even experts aren't exempt. When Apple went public, state regulators in Massachusetts, barred individual investors from buying the stock. The subsequent return has been over 15,000%." -- Jonathan Hoenig, in "When Ignoring the Herd Pays" at SmartMoney

"Above all, successful entrepreneurship requires a spirit of independence – a willingness and eagerness to see things through one’s own eyes and unique values, to make controversial decisions and take bold actions that less-creative others perpetually doubt, question, or oppose." -- Richard Salsman, in "Steve Jobs and the Money-Making Personality" at Forbes

Calling Their Bluff

Amit Ghate embeds a video of a capitalist picketing one of the various "occupy" squatter camps with a sign advertising employment opportunities. Oddly enough, he is ignored or ridiculed most of the time.

How to Build a Usable Watch

As someone who regularly wonders whether manufacturers and software designers ever actually try using their products, I enjoyed this story about a class project aimed at making a usable watch:
It was, as you can guess, a disastrous user interface. Every button wound up performing multiple functions. Double-press. Press-and-hold. Press two at once. There’s no possible way you could master it without the 3-by-3 inch sheet of instructions in 2-point type.

Inevitably, setting a time -- either for the clock or the alarm -- involves a Sisyphean ritual of pushing in some tiny, painful little button and standing there, waiting, as the digital numbers crawl up or down toward your target.

So for one particularly diabolical piece of homework, I challenged my students to redesign the Wal-Mart watch. Make it easier to use -- without sacrificing any features, and with the understanding that every new button or control would add to the cost and mechanical vulnerability.
The homework generated quite a few good or, or at least interesting, ideas.

-- CAV

Read more...

Observations of a New Dad

>> Friday, October 21, 2011

Wisecracks about "Momma two-snaps" are far from the only humorous side-effects of having a baby daughter, and I am happy to see that my wife has been collecting some of my remarks. Yes, you could say, looking at the list, that the scatology has hit the fan. All I can say about that -- and I can't resist putting it this way -- is that, if you're not a parent, no explanation is possible, but that if you are, none is necessary. Without further ado, I present the list.

  • During a particularly ... eventful ... feeding: "She's putting on her own rendition of Blazing Saddles".
  • "Even Mr. Immaculate can't be clean around a baby."
  • After a succession of rather ... challenging ... diaper changes, I developed a shorthand term for what she seemed to be saving just for me: "the father lode".
  • The girl looks astoundingly like I did in my baby pictures, except that she has her mother's extremely fair skin and her eyebrows, so I call her "Mini-Me", or sometimes "female Mini-Me".
  • "Our lives revolve around a three-week-old alimentary tract."
  • "She's a future cheerleader since she's rooting all the time."
  • "She's a future basketball player since she's dribbling all the time."
  • Yes. Another changing-table gem: "What are you trying to do? Make a new continent?"
  • The baby seems to have inherited her mother's narrow nasal passages, so her breathing, especially early on, was very noisy. (This was very cute, so I recorded it. Now, she makes the noises mainly when she's happy or very interested in something.) I'd often refer to the "chicken noises" she'd make, and eventually came up with a motto for her, based on a very old cultural reference: "Keep on clucking."
  • Upon one of us getting her to sleep after some difficulty: "Children achieve divinity in sleep."
  • After a pre-handoff warning from the wife that "this might be a drooling proposition": "For babies, life is a drooling proposition."
And since I'm journaling Daddy Moments today, I'll make note of a few other things:
  • After yesterday morning's stroll, I returned, with our sleeping baby, to the dull roar of pressure washing at our apartment complex. As I'd hoped, the noise masked many of the usual sounds that would startle her awake on the way back in, like the creaking of the garage door as it opened. Without any "pre-startling", the elevator bell failed to wake her, and I got all the way up to the apartment with the baby still asleep! I parked the stroller, took off my jacket and hat, and ... immediately sneezed, completely waking her up.
  • The baby likes to people-watch, so for the late afternoon stroll, I took her to a large square nearby that is often crowded with tourists. Some foreign visitors spotted her and asked to hold her and take pictures with her. She's a pretty baby, and even has birthmarks (that will fade over time) that make it look like she's wearing eye shadow. 
  • We've had a few really good laugh sessions lately. Once, it got to where it seemed like we were laughing at each other laughing. What gets me the most laughs at this point? Questions in general (especially if I shake my head side-to-side when asking them), certain facial expressions, and the name, "Tufts". (My wife thinks she may find s-sounds funny, generally.)
  • And, finally, here's an assortment of nicknames I've applied to her at various times and in various situations: "sport" (What I call her, for humorous effect, when she first wakes up and is still disoriented.), "formula breath", "baby Buddha", and "honey". Honey isn't really a nickname, but it's a term of endearment I never used until she came along, and I use it only for her.
People keep telling me that babies grow up fast, and that I should work to remember things like this. I am already beginning to appreciate this advice: I was momentarily saddened when I realized that I'd forgotten how I first made her laugh.

-- CAV

Read more...

Nine up the Sleeve

>> Thursday, October 20, 2011

Via HBL, I have learned that Peter Schiff doesn't like the name of GOP presidential candidate Herman Cain's 9-9-9 plan.

Cain would replace the current system of income and payroll taxes with a 9% flat-rate personal income tax, a 9% corporate tax, and a 9% national sales tax. Great idea. Such a system would unburden businesses, provide a tax cut for most Americans, and shift taxation to consumption and away from income generation. This is exactly what our economy needs. But unlike our current corporate tax system, the plan eliminates the deductibility of wages and salaries from corporate income. The net effect is the creation of a brand new 9% tax on wages. When this fourth 9 falls from Cain's sleeve, many of his opponents will likely accuse him of cheating.
Schiff still sees merit in the plan, though. (That said, I am cautious about getting rid of tax loopholes, at least until there is real momentum towards restricting government to its proper scope.)
Even with its flaws, the 9-9-9-9 plan would create an economic windfall by lowering the top corporate rate to 9% from 50% (35% at the corporate level and 15% on dividends taxed at the individual level), and simplifying the tax code to reduce unnecessary compliance costs and the economically inefficient behavior that is created by perverse tax incentives.
Later, though, Schiff states that he favors cuts in spending to make a "real" 9-9-9 plan possible, by allowing the removal of the de facto new 9% earnings tax. 

After hearing Cain's lightweight rivals make silly quips about pizza prices or flipping the digits upside-down, it's good to see a substantive critique of Cain's plan by someone who both favors a strong economy and knows what it would take for us to have one again.

-- CAV

Read more...

Four-Letter Failure

>> Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Tech blogger Thomas Park comments on the new ribbon application interface for Microsoft's Windows Explorer file browser. (I understand that their other applications will also have these silly, space-wasting ribbons.)

By focusing user research on low-level operations with the old system, and using that as the starting point for the redesign, you end up merely resizing, rearranging, and removing parts of the interface. You don't make the quantum leap, and you sometimes make things worse.

I'm reminded of a recent paper by Andreas Zeller, Thomas Zimmerman, and Christian Bird (the last two authors from Microsoft Research, ironically) titled Failure is a Four-Letter Word: A Satire in Empirical Research.

In the paper, the authors collect keystroke-level data in Eclipse and correlate it with programmers' errors. They find this data to be an excellent predictor, with the letters "i", "r", "o", and "p" guilty of the strongest correlations. Based on these findings, they come up with a cheeky solution for reducing programmers' errors: [a new keyboard without the offending letters].
All the telemetry data Microsoft used to guide its design decisions, and the impressive amount of effort that went into acquiring it, ended up being worse than useless due to bad analysis. (The "solution" offered in the paper is also, among other things, an amusing refutation of the idea that correlation implies causation.)

Poor thinking, at any step of the way, and even on a matter as relatively minor as the UI for one application produced by a software company can cause great damage. Here, Microsoft's reputation will suffer and its customers will be made less productive than they could have been, even if only by being distracted on a daily basis by a kludgey design or a loss of valuable screen real estate.

This example, although rather mundane, reminded me of, and helped me better appreciate the following story about philosopher-novelist Ayn Rand, related by Leonard Peikoff in his talk, "My Thirty Years with Ayn Rand:"
She knew too clearly how she had reached her ideas, why they were true, and what their opposites were doing to mankind. Nor, like Howard Roark, could she ever be tempted to betray her convictions. Since she had integrated her principles into a consistent system, she knew that to violate a single one would be to discard the totality. A Texas oil man once offered her up to a million dollars to use in spreading her philosophy, if she would only add a religious element to it to make it more popular. She threw his proposal into the wastebasket. "What would I do with his money," she asked me indignantly, "if I have to give up my mind in order to get it?" [bold added]
Ayn Rand, building on Aristotle, had created an entire philosophical system based on a realist metaphysics and a rational epistemology. To attempt to graft even one religious (i.e., arbitrary) element into it would have undermined her entire philosophy by treating the products of our imagination as if they had the same footing as evidence and logic. For the same reason that lying is a poor policy, so is treating as true the arbitrary: "Since all facts of reality are interrelated, faking one of them leads the person to fake others; ultimately, he is committed to an all-out war against reality as such."

Returning to level of the design decision, such a choice would have been like a Microsoft employee working on the new Explorer, having Park's insight about how to analyze the user data, but deciding not to speak up about it for fear of rocking the boat. In philosophy, though, either the kind of evasion needed to make such a decision, or its results will affect how one approaches problems, generally, and thus, barring a change of mind, it will manifest as similar types of error repeated over time and made across many areas of thought.

To allow even one whiff of the arbitrary into one's philosophical guidance system (or to "replace" it in a given act) defeats the entire purpose of having a philosophy, the former by systematically incorporating fantasy where evidence or logic is needed. Ayn Rand wouldn't merely have had to ignore what she knew to be true to accept this offer, she would have had to continue doing so from that day forward, even if only by not actually applying the philosophy as she would have had to begin to preach it.

Far worse than making an error is to make oneself unable to recover from one.

-- CAV

Read more...

Pan Am, Revisited

>> Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Via Instapundit and thanks, in part to a certain urchin of my acquaintance being uncharacteristically awake and alert during my usual blogging hours, I quickly bring your attention to some good counterarguments to the idea I recently entertained that government deregulation of the airline industry is the main cause of the "declining hotness of flight attendants", as Megan McArdle puts it:

As a libertarianish economics blogger, I would love if this story were true. But I'm skeptical.  Stewardesses used to be subject to all sorts of extremely strict rules: they couldn't be married, couldn't gain weight, couldn't get pregnant, couldn't be much over 30.  If you fire everyone who violates those rules, then yes, you will select for a much "hotter" group of women than the current crop.

You could probably still get a large group of young, hot women to take a job that involves free flights all around the world.  But those jobs are no longer open, because airlines stopped firing all the old, fat parents. Thanks to a combination of feminist shaming, union demands, and anti-discrimination laws. Moreover, once they no longer fired people over a certain age, union seniority rules immediately started selecting for older workers, in two ways:  layoffs are usually last hired first fired, and older people have a lot of sunk costs in terms of pension accrual and seniority, so they're less likely to leave.  If you fly a major airline, you'll notice very few stewardesses in their twenties.
Later, McArdle does concede that deregulation may have hastened this process, but she is skeptical that the cost of hiring stewardesses like those of Pan Am is a big enough factor to cause (or even appreciably hasten) this change in the visible demographics of airline attendants.

Plausibility, congeniality to one's own cherished notions, and succinctness alone do not a correct explanation make: As McArdle shows us, all relevant factors must be unearthed and accounted for in one's thinking, first.

-- CAV

Read more...

Cantor (Publicly) Joins Squatters

>> Monday, October 17, 2011

The Financial Times reports that, unsurprisingly, Barack Obama supports what Ann Coulter aptly calls the "Flea Party." This isn't news, but perhaps the fact that GOP Majority Leader Eric Cantor outed himself as an ally of the same is:

A top Republican in Washington dramatically altered his stance on protesters involved in Occupy Wall Street just one week after comparing the movement to "angry mobs". Eric Cantor, the Republican majority leader in the House of Representatives, told Fox News on Sunday that Republicans agreed there was "too much" income disparity in the country. "More important than my use of the word ['mobs'] is that there is a growing frustration out there across the country and it is warranted. Too many people are out of work," he said. [bold added]
Too much disparity? Does Cantor mean that the government ought to limit how much income someone can earn, or does he think it should limit how many people can earn large incomes? Either way, Cantor is wrong, and has disqualified himself as an opponent of Barack Obama and his confederacy of collectivist, street-squatting dunces. Had he any real understanding of capitalism, he would have immediately gone on the offensive, and noted that our "frustration" is due to improper government meddling in the economy, and that it will not end until such meddling lessens or ceases.

The fact that Bill Gates is wealthy and a bum is poor reflects both the consequences of their respective work habits and the fact that they live in a society that (still, sort of) protects the right of the productive to keep what they earn. (This is true, at least when the government doesn't wrongly redistribute wealth, but we set this aside since the occupiers' choice of Wall Street shows that they aren't protesting state redistribution of wealth, at least in principle.) This disparity thus represents a good thing, the misconceptions of Gates himself and other anti-capitalist tycoons to the contrary notwithstanding. If anything needs to be said about income disparity, it is that our country could stand much more of it.

The fact that someone like Cantor can so easily fold in the face of two words, "disparity" (with its ridiculous connotation that one man should not own more than another) and "frustration" (with its equally ridiculous connotation that people who support government programs and yet wonder why the economy is tanking are blameless victims) shows, to me anyway, an astounding degree of ignorance about (or, worse, indifference to) the issue at hand. It isn't like it's even moderately difficult to come up with solid reasons for income disparity to exist, or good examples.

At least we now know where Eric Cantor's loyalties lie: in the gutter.

-- CAV

--- In Other News ---

I'm with Eric Raymond: Ubuntu and Gnome have jumped the shark:
I’ll spell it out explicitly because there are a few non-programmers in my audience. User configuration data goes in plain text files, not binary blobs. There are many reasons for this, and one is so they can be hand-edited when the shiny GUI configurators turn out to be buggy or misdesigned. No programmer who doesn’t grasp this bit of good practice has any business writing a window manager, especially not on a Unix-derived system. The fact that this botch shipped in GNOME 3 tells me the GNOME system architects are incompetents who I cannot trust with my future.
Ugh. The new "Unity" interface is even worse than I found it to be upon briefly having to deal with it: It would appear that the same short-sightedness that led its designers to waste precious screen space on my netbook riddles all aspects of its design.

New Orleans Saints Coach Sean Payton deservedly makes sports writer Ryan Fowler's list of Week Six Studs:
While Jim Harbaugh and Jim Schwartz were playing ... in Detroit, New Orleans head coach Sean Payton kept his eye on the game as trainers attended to his shredded knee following a sideline collision. It was later learned Payton tore his MCL and broke his knee. He will have surgery Monday. That's stud. 
As I've said before, he's my kind of coach.

Harry Binswanger recommends a book by Raymond Tallis, who has impressed me in the past. Here's an excerpt from the customer review by John Gillis on the  Amazon page for The Aping of Mankind:
The book strikes me as having two basic goals:

(1) A withering critique of reductionists who believe: (a) that our great conceptual abilities as humans can be reduced to (is equivalent to) the neural firings in our brain. These he call neuromaniacs; and (b) those intellectuals who seek to minimize human differences from other animals by either anthropomorphizing animals or animalizing humans, in wrong ways. This phenomenon he calls Darwinitis. [However he is a committed Darwinian in the original meaning of the term.]

(2) A fascinating theory of human origins that involves explaining the origin of free will in humans, the origins of self-consciousness, the origin of conceptual development and language development, resulting from the nature of our entire body and its unique set of features. [minor edits]
I'm not sure when I'll get around to reading this, but it sounds like a must-read.

Read more...

10-15-11 Hodgepodge

>> Saturday, October 15, 2011

Iran's Acts of War

Investor's Business Daily correctly calls Iran's attempt at murdering an ambassador on American soil and act of war:

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on Tuesday that the plot "crosses a line." We shall see. In the past our only reaction has been to draw another line. Iran has declared war, and unless we are prepared to secure our borders and act as if Iran has indeed crossed a line, the next plot may involve a dirty bomb rendering a major American city uninhabitable.

"These are acts of war," Pete Hoekstra, an intelligence expert and former GOP congressman, said of this latest plot and other Iranian actions, "and they need to be viewed and treated as such." [bold added]
Regarding the drawing of new lines, the folks at IBD not only aren't whistling Dixie, they're more right than they probably realize.

Weekend Reading

"[Children] also need to understand human virtues such as courage, reason, and strength of character and what can happen when someone exercises his own judgment in the face of opposition." -- Charlotte Cushman, in "Save Western Civilization: Defend Christopher Columbus" at The American Thinker

"For everyone, gay or straight, it's not necessarily the case that their final choice of partner can meet every single need they have." -- Michael Hurd, in "Look for Integrity First" at DrHurd.com

"Many of the world's most successful investors have endured losing streaks." -- Jonathan Hoenig, in "Getting Back in the Game" at Smart Money

"The anti-capitalists, environmentalists, and anarchists we see amid the 'Occupy Wall Street' rabble polluting Wall Street in recent weeks -- most of them core supporters of Obama -- don't mention that as a Senator and presidential candidate in 2008 Obama voted for TARP." -- Richard Salsman, in "TARP After Three Years: It Made Things Worse, Not Better" at Forbes

"Let us mourn the loss of Steve Jobs–but let us also use this as an opportunity to look in the mirror and question whether we have treated Jobs and others like him as they deserve." -- Yaron Brook and Don Watkins, in "What We Owe Steve Jobs" at Forbes

From the Vault

Members of the "Occupy Wall Street" movement would do well to consider how the whole premise of "occupation" would apply to their own lives, were total strangers inevitably to decide to "occupy", say, their own homes without permission. Four years ago today, I posted about a house that was "occupied" by some barbarians who were just literate enough to glean details of a party off the Internet.

Private property is a right that enables individuals to live and enjoy their lives. It astounds me that anyone could be so self-centered or foolish as to apparently not realize that their actions condone and invite real thugs to commit crimes against themselves and those they care about.

The Brain as an Imaginary Friend

The Oatmeal does it again! This may well be my new favorite.

-- CAV

Read more...

Friday Four

>> Friday, October 14, 2011

1. There is an amusing column in the Boston Herald about some Cantabrigians who came to "occupy" more of Boston than Principal -- I mean, Mayor -- Menino would permit them to, and ended up occupying jail cells instead:

Here's another lad, age 20, white non-Hispanic naturally, and he lists his address as 208 Lowell Mail Center, Cambridge. That’s a funny street address, no?

I Googled it and it came back to the Lowell House, on the campus of Harvard University. It's described on the Crimson Web site as a "lovely neo-Georgean building" with a tower that "contains a set of Russian Bells that come from the St. Danilov Monastery in Moscow."

Did I mention that "each suite has a 'private' bathroom." Unlike the Nashua Street Jail.
On a more serious and instructive note, I seem to recall, but not exactly where, off the top of my head, that Ayn Rand had noticed that, back in the sixties, many hippies were affluent and went to prestigious educational institutions.

Conservatives may like to laugh at leftists for being naive or merely immature, but many people this age aren't leftists and these protesters are well beyond merely clueless. There is much more going on here.

2. I always appreciate it when I read something that helps me better conceptualize a problem I am thinking about. Lately, I have become interested in what I'll call, for lack of a better term, the "online privacy debate". A security blogger adds what I think is a much-needed orientation to values by reframing the problem:
Currently privacy is conceptually the reverse. "What could it hurt to share x, y, or z?" we say, instead of "Why is the benefit of sharing x, y, or z worth the potential risk?" By changing the way the discussion is framed we see beyond the petty argument about if Facebook is really tracking you, and return to the real discussion of what information we give up and why.
Certainly, both being in favor of sharing everything, and being paranoid about sharing anything are ridiculous positions. Part of why each is ridiculous is that each discounts a different half of the cost-benefit analysis as less relevant than it is, if it considers that half at all.

3. I'll briefly recommend three beers and a tea I have enjoyed recently: Wachusett Green Monsta Ale, Great Divide Samurai Rice Ale, Great Divide Rumble Oak Aged IPA, and Tazo Cucumber White. I'm particularly looking forward to becoming acquainted with the other beers in Great Divide's lineup.

4. Dennis Ritchie, the man on whose shoulders Steve Jobs (and Linus Torvalds, and many, many others) stood, has died. Via HBL is a good article on the man in Wired magazine:
"Pretty much everything on the web uses those two things: C and UNIX," [Rob] Pike tells Wired. "The browsers are written in C. The UNIX kernel -- that pretty much the entire Internet runs on -- is written in C. Web servers are written in C, and if they’re not, they're written in Java or C++, which are C derivatives, or Python or Ruby, which are implemented in C. ...

"It's really hard to overstate how much of the modern information economy is built on the work Dennis did."

Even Windows was once written in C, he adds, and UNIX underpins both Mac OS X, Apple's desktop operating system, and iOS, which runs the iPhone and the iPad. "Jobs was the king of the visible, and Ritchie is the king of what is largely invisible," says Martin Rinard, professor of electrical engineering and computer science at MIT and a member of the Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory. [format edits]
We all owe this man a huge debt of gratitude.

-- CAV

Read more...

The Pan Am Effect

>> Thursday, October 13, 2011

At Agoraphilia, Glen Whitman discerns, in the attractive stewardesses of Pan American World Airways fame, a side-effect of yesteryear's government regulation of air travel.

Prior to airline deregulation, which was passed in 1978 and completed over the next few years, airfares had been set by the Civil Aeronautics Board (CAB). For many routes, those airfares were simply too high. As predicted by a simple supply-and-demand model, airlines were willing to offer more flights at these high prices than customers were willing to buy. Under normal market conditions, that would lead to falling prices. But since the airlines legally could not compete on price, they competed on quality instead. They offered better service, better food, and... wait for it... more attractive stewardesses.
With deregulation, it quickly became apparent that, "most people just wanted to get where they were going, fast and cheap," and so were not interested in paying extra for attractive flight attendants. Prices dropped and the appearance of flight attendants stopped being a selling point for airlines. The result was that the number of people flying at least once a year grew faster than the population, and numerous opportunities for work as flight attendants (beautiful or not) opened up.

Even when some improper government regulation appears to improve our lives in some small way, considering the larger picture (and conceptualizing the unseen side-effects) will inevitably show that the price for that apparent improvement is too high.

-- CAV

Update: Megan McArdle makes some pretty good arguments to the effect that other regulations, and not deregulation, may be to blame for this phenomenon.

P.S. I am told that there has been a problem with Twitterfeed, the service by which I auto-tweet my posts for the past couple of weeks. Specifically,Twitter has been taking users to my XML feed (and sometimes to the comments feed, rather than to the posts). I am now aware of the problem and hope to fix it, although my time to do so is very limited. Today, I am trying an alternate feed. If that doesn't work, I'll try something else on the next day's post, and so on until I find a working solution.

Thank you in advance for your patience. [Update: The new feed seems to have done the trick. Also, my thanks to "RussK" for informing me of the problem: I rarely am actually logged on to Twitter!]

Updates

Today: Updated the PS. 
10-18-11: Added an update.

Read more...

Ballooning Bureaucracy

>> Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Via email comes the latest paternalistic government ban that shouldn't amaze, but does; and that would be too over-the-top to be usable in a work of political satire, but is making real news:

[B]alloons must not be blown up by unsupervised children under the age of eight, in case they accidentally swallow them and choke.

...


Whistle blowers, that scroll out into a a long coloured paper tongue when sounded -- a party favourite at family Christmas meals -- are now classed as unsafe for all children under 14.
The story has no word on how humanity managed to perpetuate for so long without such detailed instructions or, on a more serious note, whether anyone was becoming concerned that a government far-reaching and powerful enough to concern itself with such harmless activities might pose a far greater danger to life and limb.

-- CAV

--- In Other News ---

Note to self: Try ifttt already.

Heh. I guess Netflix has decided against "disrupting" itself, if it was even being that smart by splitting itself in half.

David Veksler has written a very intelligent post on "The Case for Evidence-Based Medicine", over at Truth, Justice, and the American Way (via Objectivism Online). I particularly like this quote:
[I]t is difficult to make firm conclusions in medicine. But when valid scientific principles are not followed, it is easy to conclude that no valid conclusion can be reached. In other words, you can't always be sure what's good for you, but you can be sure when someone is talking nonsense.

When someone makes irrational health claims, it does not mean that those claims are false. It just means those claims were not derived by rational (scientific) principles, and so we cannot [say] anything about their truth -- we can only ignore them as arbitrary. It is as if someone claimed [an] invisible, undetectable pink unicorn in the sky -- that which cannot be proven or disproved can only be dismissed. [minor format edits, hyperlink added]
Towards the end of his post, Veksler links to a good TED video by Ben Goldacre that has other good things to say against medical quackery.

Read more...

Commuting, Revisited

>> Tuesday, October 11, 2011

A few months ago, I took a brief look at the time costs of commuting. Yesterday evening, I ran across a similar analysis, by one "Mr. Money Mustache" that  focused on the monetary costs.

[The] misconception about what is a reasonable commute is probably the biggest thing that is keeping most people in the US and Canada poor.

Let's take a typical day's drive for this self-destructive couple. Adding 38 miles of round-trip driving at the IRS’s estimate of total driving cost of $0.51 per mile, there’s $19 per day of direct driving and car ownership costs. It is possible to drive for less, but these people happen to have fairly new cars, bought on credit, so they are wasting the full amount.

Next is the actual human time wasted. At 80 minutes per day, the self-imposed driving would be adding the equivalent of almost an entire work day to each work week -- so they would now effectively be working 6 workdays per week.

After 10 years, multiplied across two cars since they have different work schedules, this decision would cost them about $125,000 in wealth (if they had for example chosen to put the $19/day into extra payments on their mortgage), and 1.3 working years worth of time, EACH, spent risking their lives daily behind the wheel*.

That’s EVERY ten years. And that’s with a commute that most Americans claim is "not too bad".

You’ll note that most 30-year-old couples today, about 10 years into adulthood, don’t even have $125,000 in net worth. And they probably drive around quite a bit in expensive financed cars, mostly as part of a self-imposed commute. These facts are directly related! [emphasis in original]
This is eye-opening, although, as comes up in the comments (and I've learned by living in Boston), many alternatives would come with other costs (e.g., higher housing costs) that would negate all or part of the money saved from not having to commute -- or even make commuting look like a bargain, financially.

What prompted me to comment on the post also turns out to have come up in its comment section: education. It occurred to me this morning that one thing driving many home purchases is the "quality" of the government schools to which the children living in a particular house will be subjected by default. The tuition (made artificially high by "free" government competition) for private education or the time for home schooling end up, for couples with children, having to be considered among the costs of the alternatives to long commutes. As one commenter notes:
[Nine] years later, my eldest daughter bought a small house in the same general area we had rented in. She has a five minute commute but she and her husband are going broke from house repairs, house payments, property taxes, property insurance and private school tuition to make sure that their kids get a good education. ... [minor edits]
I have not done exhaustive research on this question, but the very reasonable tuition of a school I have heard great things about would, alone -- and for a single child -- wipe out the savings realized by avoiding a long commute (assuming that could even be done in California, where that school is located).

It is also worth noting that many of the other things besides education that come into play regarding this question are due to bad government -- from the fact that so many otherwise affordable urban neighborhoods are crime-infested messes to the fact that taxes are often much higher in large cities -- particularly in "blue" parts of the country and the Rust Belt.

Commutes may be sucking the time and money out of our lives, but it is bad government that makes them into the path of least resistance for so many Americans.

-- CAV

Read more...

Let's Do

>> Monday, October 10, 2011

Reader Snedcat emails me a link to a type of article I would have otherwise ignored, but since it is particularly "good", I have decided to briefly comment on its main points...

After the passing of Steve Jobs, it was inevitable that, as a capitalist, he would be attacked, sooner or later, for his alleged moral flaws. At Gawker, an article titled, "What Everyone Is Too Polite to Say About Steve Jobs", does exactly that.

One thing he wasn't, though, was perfect. Indeed there were things Jobs did while at Apple that were deeply disturbing. Rude, dismissive, hostile, spiteful: Apple employees -- the ones not bound by confidentiality agreements -- have had a different story to tell over the years about Jobs and the bullying, manipulation and fear that followed him around Apple. Jobs contributed to global problems, too. Apple's success has been built literally on the backs of Chinese workers, many of them children and all of them enduring long shifts and the specter of brutal penalties for mistakes. And, for all his talk of enabling individual expression, Jobs imposed paranoid rules that centralized control of who could say what on his devices and in his company.
Since this article is written from the angle of bringing new information to light for readers who are assumed to agree with the author's implicit equation of altruism with morality -- I don't -- we will set aside that fact for a moment and look at the quality of this "information" by looking at a few of Jobs's alleged sins.

Jobs is called a terrible employer for saying things like the following (as quoted by Gawker from Fortune) during a half-hour "public" humiliation of a group of workers, which he finished by replacing its head:
"Can anyone tell me what MobileMe is supposed to do?" Having received a satisfactory answer, he continued, "So why the fuck doesn't it do that?"

"You've tarnished Apple's reputation," he told them. "You should hate each other for having let each other down."
Never mind that this was not really public, but occurred at a company meeting; that (even if it had been) any of his employees who did not like being made an example of was free to look for other work; that the answer to his question should have been so obvious as to have implicitly guided the thinking of this team and rendered such a meeting unnecessary; or that, perhaps Jobs had reasons to believe that his making an example of this team would serve his boss, the paying customer, best: A boss telling his employees that they are not doing what he is paying them to do is moral fodder for the likes of Gawker, on the grounds, I suppose, that it was harsh.

The great products this man churned out had to be created somehow. Part of that "somehow" is getting teams on the same page about what they are doing. Even if we grant that this wasn't the best way to deal with this situation, the fact is that Jobs harmed no one.

Jobs is condemned because, "Apple's success has been built literally on the backs of Chinese workers," and because he employed children as laborers. The alleged brutality of child labor and long factory shifts has been examined and found better than the alternative ad nauseam, but let's think about it again, anyway, by considering a column the economist Thomas Sowell wrote nearly a decade ago.
A recent front-page story in The New York Times was headlined: "In Ecuador's Banana Fields, Child Labor is Key to Profits." This is part of an ongoing orgy of indignation by the intelligentsia at low-paid labor in the Third World.

The question they never ask is: Compared to what? But people for whom indignation is a way of life seldom pause to compare the available options. Instead, they are ready to foreclose some of the options of poor people, who have painfully few options to begin with.

Buried on an inside page is the response of low-income Ecuadorians when their children were dismissed from the banana plantations, as a result of adverse publicity created by activists from wealthier countries. "They fired all the children, but the work they did helped us," an Ecuadorian mother complained.

In other words, the poor in Ecuador are now poorer, while the activists from affluent countries are triumphant. None of this is peculiar to this particular industry or to Ecuador. Whenever there is a World Trade Organization meeting, you can depend on affluent young people to engage in riots over such things as "sweatshop labor" in the Third World. [emphasis in original]
Andrew Bernstein refuted this anachronistic idea even more thoroughly five years ago in his book, The Capitalist Manifesto. But Bernstein and Sowell are hardly the first people to show that the animus against child labor is naive at best. I leave it as an exercise for the reader to consider what aspect of Jobs's decision to hire workers in China was worthy of moral condemnation, and why Gawker holds long-refuted smears against capitalism out as "fact." All I will add is that the betterment of his workers was not why Jobs hired them (nor is it why he should have), but it was a fortunate result of the fact that he traded his money for their labor.

And, finally, Jobs is damned for being "authoritarian" because of his company's vertical integration, and for practicing "censorship" because he limits what people can sell or display in his own store. If you don't like someone else limiting your choices -- I don't -- then take your business elsewhere -- Regarding Apple, I usually do. Unlike a government entity, Apple doesn't have the power to fine or imprison you simply for not purchasing products you don't like. If you want to see something, like gay porn or political ads, that Jobs doesn't permit in his outlets, go to another outlet: He can't stop you from doing what you want when you're not using his property.

Incidentally, this piece is remarkably bad on the issue of rights in general and property rights in particular: Jobs is damned for deciding what he'll give "floor space" to (or not), and yet if someone wants to subject his customers to smut or political hectoring, that someone is to be free to run roughshod all over Jobs's store, Jobs and his paying customers be damned. (Or should some third party dictate what iTunes offers?) Who's the authoritarian here? And, considering how this would work in practice, who's the censor?

There's more I could say about this smear piece, but I think I've done enough for now to show that Gawker is, in fact, doing the exact opposite of what it claims to be doing, which is to provide a "balanced" picture of a man -- who isn't, by the way, around any longer around to defend himself. And this is just the tip of the iceberg: The piece also uses altruism, a code of morality Ayn Rand eloquently argued is immoral and impractical -- and, as such, impossible to practice consistently -- to drag a man so many justly admire through the mud on the grounds that he "wasn't ... perfect."

This article kicked off its list of "lowlights" by stating the following, "After celebrating Jobs' achievements, we should talk freely about the dark side of Jobs and the company he co-founded." Yes. But let's really talk about them, rather than dropping all rational context and then slinging random facts around like mud, and hoping that common, but unwarranted emotional associations make cowardly accusations stick.

If we really do this, then we can even better understand why we admire Jobs, and what is wrong, on so many levels, with the thinking behind his detractors.

-- CAV

Updates

Today: Minor edits. 

Read more...

10-8-11 Hodgepodge

>> Saturday, October 08, 2011

Who Inspires the Inspirational?

America has clearly lost a great and inspiring man (via HBL) in Steve Jobs. But who inspired him? The New York Times has a story on Polaroid's Edwin H. Land, who invented instant photography:

Both built multibillion-dollar corporations on inventions that were guarded by relentless patent enforcement. (That also kept the competition at bay, and the profit margins up.) Both were autodidacts, college dropouts (Land from Harvard, Jobs from Reed) who more than made up for their lapsed educations by cultivating extremely refined taste. At Polaroid, Land used to hire Smith College's smartest art-history majors and send them off for a few science classes, in order to create chemists who could keep up when his conversation turned from Maxwell's equations to Renoir's brush strokes.

Most of all, Land believed in the power of the scientific demonstration. Starting in the 60s, he began to turn Polaroid's shareholders' meetings into dramatic showcases for whatever line the company was about to introduce. In a perfectly art-directed setting, sometimes with live music between segments, he would take the stage, slides projected behind him, the new product in hand, and instead of deploying snake-oil salesmanship would draw you into Land's World. By the end of the afternoon, you probably wanted to stay there.
Read the whole thing.

Weekend Reading

"Call hypocrisy by its proper name, and treat it accordingly – in yourself and in others." -- Michael Hurd, in "Avoid Hypocrisy for Positive Change" at DrHurd.com

"In earlier generations, civil disobedience like the Montgomery Bus Boycott or women's suffrage movement used nonviolent protest to combat blatant violations of individual rights." -- Jonathan Hoenig, in "Occupy Wall Street: A Sad Display" at SmartMoney

My Two Cents

Hoenig makes three invaluable observations about the "occupation" in his column that I have seen nowhere else: (1) It certainly doesn't occupy the moral high ground, in marked contrast to past examples of civil disobedience; (2) It is sad; and (3) It is, nevertheless, quite dangerous.

A Snapshot of Confirmation Bias?

From a story on four strange Android phone glitches:
Users across the Internet dreamed up all sorts of fixes. Some claimed that there was a plastic film that needed to be peeled off the lens. Other were convinced that a good, solid cleaning of the glass with a lint-free cloth was the ticket. Still others said it was a hardware flaw. It turns out none of them were right, but it does illustrate the effect of confirmation bias for those obsessively cleaning the lens.

One fine morning a few weeks after the device launched, everyone woke up to a functional camera. A stealth OTA update? No, as it turns out, there was a date-dependent bug in Android 2.0 that would cycle every 24.5 days. So every few weeks, the autofocus would flip between working and not working. [minor edits, link to confirmation bias added]
Maybe, maybe not...

Following the second link above, I see that some people, inspired by things they read about the phones shipping with an oily film on their camera lenses, performed "experiments" that involved wiping said lenses. Although I am sure some of these people may have cleaned their lenses just as the date bug caused their cameras to (temporarily) start working, I wonder what they did twenty-five days later. Whether this was an example of confirmation bias depends, in part on the answer to that question.

Those who permitted confirmation bias to distort their view of reality would have gone on cleaning their lenses and insisting that their less-than-crisp snapshots were good; and those who did not would have admitted their mistake and started looking again for the correct answer.

Even the above depends on further context, for example, on what "green focus" means, and whether there was some objective way to know what level of image quality the camera should have produced. If the problem was subtle and "green focus" was an indication that could yield false positives on top of the focus bug, I am not sure the concept of confirmation bias could apply to the mistaken judgement that some people obviously made as to whether their cameras were working.

-- CAV

Read more...

Friday Four

>> Friday, October 07, 2011

1. A beer blogger discusses the impact of "Beowulf and Beer" sessions on J.R.R. Tolkien's creative work, and a commenter notes the following: "The pub that Tolkien and Lewis (along with the rest of the [I]nklings) drank at was called the Eagle and the Child[, and it was] just near Oxford. It was so influential that there are connections to the pub in the Shire township Mitchel Delving where the main pub/inn is none other than the Bird and the Baby."

2. Three-Dimensional Printing has come a long way since I saw a crude demo of the concept at a German science museum when I was in college. At the site 3D Printing, you can see video of a usable crescent wrench being scanned and printed -- and used to tighten a bolt about ninety minutes later. Wikipedia quotes The Economist on the process as, "mak[ing] it as cheap to create single items as it is to produce thousands and thus undermin[ing] economies of scale."

3. Having neither the time, the space, nor the money to indulge my childhood hobby of model railroading, I nevertheless enjoy seeing the occasional model train show or visiting a particularly well-executed train layout. This means that I must visit the Tech Model Railroad Club some time. Notably, the venerable club has made quite a few notable contributions to computer jargon, including the term hacker.

4. ls young Jozy Altidore of the United States Men's National Soccer Team finally living up to the hype? I certainly hope so, and this sounds promising: "Critics have quieted way down of late because the U.S. national team forward has been on fire since arriving at AZ Alkmaar in the Dutch league over the summer. Altidore has scored seven goals in 11 matches so far, three in league play and four in Europa League games."

-- CAV

Read more...

This is what ...

>> Thursday, October 06, 2011

... a gang of clueless idiots looks like.

When you oversleep and your baby wakes up early, it's a quick post or nothing at all...

Yesterday, I was out with the baby and, shortly after noticing a motorcycle cop stationed on the corner of the street I was waiting to cross, I heard a din behind me. This is what I turned around to see.


The din turned out to be the highly persuasive beating of drums and chanting of, "This is what democracy looks like!" by something on the order of a hundred unkempt punks.

If these people had an ounce of sense, they would realize the supreme irony of their chant: While, yes, the preemption of intellectual debate exhibited by shouting and the show of intimidation by large numbers do visually give us a sample of what unlimited mob rule might "look" like, the fact that they were stamping and bellowing to their hearts' content with impunity was really what rule of law looks like. Mobs do not respect freedom of speech; societies with proper governments, or those that at least protect freedom of speech, do.

The demonstration reminds me of a few choice Ayn Rand quotes, but two seem particularly apt, given the fixation on the forcible redistribution of wealth from one percent of the population to the rest. Both pertain to the fact that wealth must be produced through rational, self-interested effort, rather than miraculously existing as some fixed "pie" that nobody owns.

First, stealing from the wealthiest is worse than futile:
In view of what they hear from the experts, the people cannot be blamed for their ignorance and their helpless confusion. If an average housewife struggles with her incomprehensibly shrinking budget and sees a tycoon in a resplendent limousine, she might well think that just one of his diamond cuff links would solve all her problems. She has no way of knowing that if all the personal luxuries of all the tycoons were expropriated, it would not feed her family -- and millions of other, similar families -- for one week; and that the entire country would starve on the first morning of the week to follow . . . . How would she know it, if all the voices she hears are telling her that we must soak the rich? [from "The Inverted Moral Priorities," which appeared in The Ayn Rand Letter]
Second, regarding "the rich," they are not only (surprise!) human beings, but our lives depend on them, as John Galt notes in Atlas Shrugged:
When you live in a rational society, where men are free to trade, you receive an incalculable bonus: the material value of your work is determined not only by your effort, but by the effort of the best productive minds who exist in the world around you.

When you work in a modern factory, you are paid, not only for your labor, but for all the productive genius which has made that factory possible: for the work of the industrialist who built it, for the work of the investor who saved the money to risk on the untried and the new, for the work of the engineer who designed the machines of which you are pushing the levers, for the work of the inventor who created the product which you spend your time on making, for the work of the scientist who discovered the laws that went into the making of that product, for the work of the philosopher who taught men how to think and whom you spend your time denouncing.

The machine, the frozen form of a living intelligence, is the power that expands the potential of your life by raising the productivity of your time. If you worked as a blacksmith in the mystics' Middle Ages, the whole of your earning capacity would consist of an iron bar produced by your hands in days and days of effort. How many tons of rail do you produce per day if you work for Hank Rearden? Would you dare to claim that the size of your pay check was created solely by your physical labor and that those rails were the product of your muscles? The standard of living of that blacksmith is all that your muscles are worth; the rest is a gift from Hank Rearden.
How many of these self-righteous, cowardly wanabe thieves own iPhones? Or have flown on jet planes? Or have had their lives saved by modern medicine? None of this would have been possible to the richest emperor before the Industrial Revolution, and yet they ignore all of this and whine about the fact that some people have more than others, without even stopping to think about whether they might deserve it, whether they may have a right to it.

I do not, of course, expect to penetrate the thick skull of anyone who would participate in this farce, but I do wish to underscore why it is vital not to give in to them one inch, morally or politically, and to briefly point out a thinker, Ayn Rand, whose ideas would greatly reduce the occurrence of such follies were her ideas better known throughout our culture.

-- CAV

Read more...

Barrowman on Placebos

>> Wednesday, October 05, 2011

Statistician Nick Barrowman takes a look at the burgeoning area of research into the placebo effect and questions its very premise. (HT: John Cook)

Suppose a clinical trial randomizes 100 patients to receive an experimental drug in the form of pills and an equal number of patients to receive identical pills except that they contain no active ingredient, that is, placebo. The results of the trial are as follows: 60 of the patients who received the experimental drug improved, compared to 30 of the patients who received the placebo. The drug clearly works better than the placebo.[1] But 30% of the patients who received the placebo did get better. There seems to be a placebo effect, right?

Wrong. The results from this trial provide no information about whether or not there is a placebo effect. To determine whether there is a placebo effect you would need compare the outcomes of patients who received placebo with the outcomes of patients who received no treatment. And not surprisingly, trials with a no-treatment arm are quite rare.
Barrowman further quotes from a meta-study of 130 trials in which some patients received placebos and some no treatment:
We found little evidence in general that placebos had powerful clinical effects. Although placebos had no significant effects on objective or binary outcomes, they had possible small benefits in studies with continuous subjective outcomes and for the treatment of pain.
Following this quote is an interesting look at a trial of an asthma medication in which placebos and non-treatment were compared with the medication, and two measures of improvement were employed: the patients' own ratings of improvement and a measurement of expiratory volume. A placebo effect showed up in the first measure, but not in the second.

Barrowman goes on to consider why the placebo effect has been getting so much attention lately, and, finally, the kind of rhetorical disadvantage skeptics will find themselves facing when they raise objections:
Curiously, however, in more scientific circles recent developments in neurobiology have also encouraged interest in the placebo effect. Advances in understanding of how the brain works have lead to research efforts to understand the mechanism of action of the placebo effect. This is more than a little odd, given the fairly sparse evidence for such an effect! An article in Wired Magazine asserts that "The fact that taking a faux drug can powerfully improve some people's health -- the so-called placebo effect -- has long been considered an embarrassment to the serious practice of pharmacology." Note that the article takes for granted "the fact" that the placebo effect works.

Indeed, the term "the placebo effect" itself is part of the problem. By labeling it as an effect, we lend it credence. Arguing against the placebo effect seems to put one at an immediate disadvantage. Hasn't everyone heard of the placebo effect? How could anyone deny such an established fact? [bold added, minor format edits]
I myself ran into (and blogged) the Wired article Barrowman links above some time ago. I recall finding attractive the idea that "mind hacks" could cure or mitigate some illnesses, at the time. Unfortunately, attractiveness, plausibility, and consistency with some widely-accepted belief are not the same thing as truth. (This is not to say that this tactic could never work; only that, if it can, the situations in which it can are probably much less common than one might wish.)

-- CAV

Read more...

   Blogger template based on Webnolia, by Ourblogtemplates.com, © 2009, and Icy Blue, by Neil Turner.

Back to TOP