Syria Borrows China's Playbook

I've blogged several times about China's habit of threatening Taiwan should it move towards formalizing its status as an independent country, something it has done somewhat credibly for at least the past ten years. Back in 1996:

[The March 1] tests were China's third since June, but the missiles landed closer to the island than ever before.

The war games are widely viewed as an attempt to thwart Taiwan's forays toward independence and wither support for front-runner and incumbent president Lee Teng-hu. Taiwan plans to hold its first direct presidential elections on March 23.

Beijing accuses Lee of paying lip-service to reunification while pursuing independence. China began flexing its muscles across the narrow Taiwan Strait last summer when Lee paid a controversial, private visit to the United States.

Now, it's Syria's turn. In their case, they want to intimidate voters in Lebanon.

Syria test-fired three Scud missiles late last week, reinforcing Israeli worries about Damascus' ability to deliver a missile-borne chemical attack against Israeli civilian targets, Israeli military officials said Friday.

...


The tests were timed just days before Lebanon holds its first elections since the withdrawal.

And, like China, they are thumbing their noses at the United States while also attempting to neutralize our military presence (via Israel) in the region. The missiles broke up over NATO member Turkey, where the debris landed. The missiles furthermore present the unpleasant possibility of providing a means of delivering chemical weapons to Israel.

As I see it, though, the differences far outweigh the similarities. China is a growing military power whose regime appears firmly in control despite many factors that could make it unstable. It will quietly continue its military buildup and will patiently wait until the right moment to attack Taiwan. Syria is relatively weak militarily and its regime is being threatened from external and internal pressures. It has also lost credibility at home by having had to withdraw from Lebanon. If it launches military strikes, they will be the last gasp of a regime that sees a war it can frankly ill afford to fight as the only way to regain the respect of and unify its citizens.

The greater long-term danger -- to the freedom of Taiwan -- is indeed from China. But the paroxysms of a threatened regime in Syria are a far greater immediate threat -- to the civilian populations of Israel and Lebanon.

-- CAV