Quick Roundup 109

Gauging Republican Chances

An article at RealClear Politics takes a look at just how dismal the polling data for the GOP might really be, and concludes that it is not as bad as many are saying.

As things stand right now, the odds of a GOP retention, according to these arguments of these rankers, are somewhere between 1/2 and 1/1. If Cook, Rothenberg and CQ are your guide - you should not take the GOP at even money, but anything less than that is a bet worth taking.

So perhaps a "pre-mortem" is premature.

But what isn't premature, and is independent of the eventual outcome, is asking why the GOP -- during a war and with such a weak opponent -- is having to worry as much as it is in the first place.

Although Glenn Reynolds later discusses prosecution of the war, his list of five main "unforced errors" (The Terri Schiavo Debacle, The Harriet Miers Nomination, the Dubai Ports Disaster, Immigration, and how the GOP handled William Jefferson) was initially incomplete. This list boils down to "catered too much to the religious right and xenophobics, while failing to promote limited government and capitalism". These are certainly valid points, but I would agree with the reader he cites later who says:

One point I have not seen much in the blogs or elsewhere concerns the Republican handling of the War on Terror. As part of the conservative 'base' I am disappointed in the administration for not being MORE aggressive in fighting the war...it reminds me of the speech by George C Scott in Patton..."Americans love a winner and will not tolerate a loser"...I think that the Republicans could remain in power if they showed more outward signs of strength in the matters of North Korea, Iran and Iraq. If we were fighting to 'win', I think the average american would back the president and congress. [bold added]

I would not only agree that the Republicans are in trouble for not prosecuting this war more thoroughly, I would argue that this is the primary reason they're in trouble. Consider the fact that the war is almost in danger of being forgotten entirely as some quarters seem to have lapsed back into a 1990's-like vacation from history. Some would say that we are "victims of our own success".

But are we? Is North Korea defiantly playing with bombs and missiles while hosting Iranian officials "success"? Is Iran waging a proxy war against Israel, aiding "insurgents" in Iraq, and getting so close to having a bomb "success"? Is Pakistan openly defecting from its "alliance" against al Qaeda "success"? No. And on top of all this, there are many aspects of the prosecution of the war that are not being pushed as much from the "bully pulpit" of the Presidency as they could be.

I wonder whether the absence of the war from Reynolds's original list (and, apparently, those of many others) is an example of someone missing "the unseen", as Frederic Bastiat might put it. The Republicans aren't just not prosecuting the war aggressively enough, they are letting the Democrats get away with helping America forget that it exists!

In any event, my regular readers will know that at least one blogger has not missed the fact that there is ample room in the American political milieu for a more thorough and consistent prosecution of the war against the Islamic fascists.

Gauging Kim Jong "Mentally" Il's Success

And here's another area where -- thanks to wartime inaction -- we are left wondering about something that should never even be a remote possibility: Namely, Does North Korea have the bomb?

According to the New York Sun, the answer may, luckily, be "No".

The growing consensus that Kim Jong Il's nuclear test may not have been so nuclear after all means that the best news from the past week could well turn out to be that Kim is as impotent as the United Nations Security Council. The similarity between the possibly Potemkin nuclear test and the Potemkin Security Council resolution passed this weekend is certainly striking -- a good show but one soon discovers that there's not much there. The problem is that even if Kim has not yet exploded a nuclear device, there is a threat he will ultimately overcome his limitations. Less such hope obtains at the Security Council. [bold added]

The Sun continues, stating, "At least now that the world has seen the limitations of the United Nations in respect of North Korea, America and her democratic allies like Japan, Australia, and South Korea will be able to think more creatively about the problem." Kudos to the Sun for calling a spade -- the failure of the United Nations here -- a spade.

Of course, some would argue that the United Nations, by its very nature, is inimical to freedom. This short piece by the Sun, as encouraging as it is, is merely a step in the right direction towards that realization.

"Something is rotten in the state of Denmark ...

... and Hamlet is taking out the trash!"

Enjoy! (HT: Hannes Hacker, who found it here)

-- CAV

Updates

10-16-06: Added a hyperlink.