A Political Tea-Leaf Reading

Monday, November 08, 2021

A post at the conservative Power Line blog says about as much about how to get news these days as it analyzes that news.

To get that first bit out of the way: Paul Mirengoff's description of his news-gathering reminds me quite a bit of my own:

Image by Richard Corner, via Wikimedia Commons, license.
The statements of four women handpicked by CNN [for interviews] don't necessarily reflect the views of Virginia's suburban moms. However, a reader with a good pulse on what parents in Northern Virginia have to say tells me that CNN's clip accurately portrays the views of many suburban parents he knows who supported Biden in 2020 but voted for Youngkin in 2021.

Accordingly, I believe it's worth considering what the four had to say.
News media are too busy trying to craft a political narrative to be trusted as news media. Check. Independent verification of purported facts is required, preferably from a political opponent of said network or a neutral. Check. I don't always agree with the blogger, but I usually find him thoughtful, and willing to admit things unfavorable for his side, at least from an electoral perspective.

All that out of the way, the overall take for this pro-capitalist is hopeful:
[I]f the four parents' comments are representative, they show, at a minimum, that the suburbs are up for grabs. The powerful anti-Trump reaction of 2020 does not presage a realignment. [bold added]
This is good news, and it is bolstered by the facts that (1) these parents rejected the idea that they were unhappy that the Democrats hadn't managed to pass their spending-spree packages, and (2) Terry McAuliffe's harping on Donald Trump was off-putting to them, despite their dislike of the former President. Most important, these interviewees were more interested in "policy concerns" that talking about Donald Trump.

That's something I wish both parties would take to heart.

Indeed, it sounds like my take on the election was about right.

There were things each party could learn from the segment, but therein lies the bad news: (1) It would appear that the ridiculous school closures that started during the pandemic will inevitably wane as a campaign issue that will hurt the Democrats, and (2) Donald Trump, in Mirengoff's words is "poison" to such voters. Guess which factor will loom over the next presidential race, whether or not Trump actually runs?

If the GOP is serious about retaking the White House, it will listen to persuadable voters like these, and run a more substantive candidate than Donald Trump. This election just showed them that such a strategy can work. Far from being the GOP's only hope, Donald Trump remains the person best suited to making sure Biden or Harris -- or someone even worse -- can win in 2024.

-- CAV

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