Putin's Desperate Gamble?

My own uninformed opinion of the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been basically that this is something Putin has wanted to do for a long time, and that the obvious weakness of the Biden administration represented an opening to him. Europe's insane energy policy -- of using such unreliable sources as wind and solar and closing nuclear power plants -- was already practically an invitation for him to do something like this: Europe is heavily dependent on Russia for energy.

That said, I have been at a loss regarding the questions (1) Why now? and (2) What's his hurry? I hear he's put his nuclear forces on alert. It could be bluster, but this is someone who chose to start a war whose objectives were arguably not difficult to achieve with time and patience.

Although the piece doesn't really answer the first of these questions -- And the answer could boil down to He was going to do this at some time. -- Richard Fernandez of PJ Media does offer plausible answers to the second question, as well as thoughts on its poor progress (for Russia).

Regarding the latter, Fernandez concludes:

"[T]he President is not an icon, an idol or a portrait. Hang your kids' photos instead, and look at them each time you are making a decision." -- Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (Image by Ukranian Government, via Wikimedia Commons, license.)

Ukraine has not won, not in the military sense. It has lost territory, suffered significant losses to soldiers and civilians, and endured massive property damage. But crucially, it has not lost -- and that may be enough. Attention is now turning to the possible danger that may attend Putin's fall. While he appears to remain firmly in power, the ex-chekist (member of the original Soviet secret police) cannot but be weakened by the massive failure of his gamble.

There is nothing else the Ukrainian winter war of 2022 resembles so much as a gigantic throw of the dice, so preposterous given the available forces that many, myself included, did not believe any rational man could undertake it. But perhaps Putin is not the ten-foot colossus the media makes him out to be as much as an aging "man of force" presiding over an economically and demographically dwindling, ex-Soviet haunted empire. In that he resembles another dictator, who the media likes to compare everyone to, that in dire straits launched a similar failed gamble in the Ardennes in 1944.

The crisis in Ukraine, while not over, is likely to evolve into a crisis in Russia. We shall soon see who is more to be feared: a Putin in Kyiv or a Putin raging in the bunker.

This morning's headlines have Russia and Ukraine negotiating a cease-fire and Europe showing what passes for resolve these days.

Whether that's a good resolution or it simply buys time for one or both sides remains to be seen.

-- CAV