The Latest Conservative Covid Cluelessness

Not that I have exactly been watching them like a hawk, but the conservative Power Line blog has managed not to have me catch them making asses of themselves about the pandemic.

Until yesterday, that is, when I encountered a John Hinderaker post asking the pregnant-looking question of why the Democrats -- who have happily embraced the pandemic as an excuse to indulge their totalitarian impulses -- are only now loosening some of their pandemic restrictions.

Hinderaker supplies the graphs you see below, along with the following commentary:

... Is there any reason to think that covid is receding into the past? No...

...

In fact, we are just now coming out of the highest spike in covid cases in the history of the epidemic. With regard to cases, there has been no progress in the past year, and there is zero reason to assume there are no major spikes coming in the future. And the vaccines have been widely available for a year now, while the CDC reports that 81 percent of Americans have received at least one shot. Obviously the vaccines have done little or nothing to stop the spread of covid.

You might say, sure, but those recent cases are the harmless omicron variant. Cases are up, but deaths are not. But you would be wrong. Here are the CDC's numbers for covid deaths, again on a seven-day rolling average basis...

It looks to me as though the last seven months have seen at least as many covid deaths as any prior seven-month period. And, despite the fact that various government agencies have produced data purporting to show that vaccines dramatically reduce the incidence of hospitalization and death -- data that in some instances, at least, appears to be flawed -- the overall numbers do not reflect any such dramatic impact. [bold added]

Hinderaker continues, also insinuating that maybe the deaths are being incorrectly attributed to Covid.

Images by CDC, via Power Line, public domain.

One need only look at Hinderaker's own plots and engage one's mind for a moment to see that he has actually made an ass of himself while also explaining why even Democrats are having to admit that -- insofar as they have used Covid to rationalize their immoral and impractical lockdowns -- they no longer have a leg to stand on. (Whether that is why they are doing so is another question altogether.)

Just eyeball the very first and the very last peaks of each graph, and use the magic of division. The top graph is daily cases. The first peak of that graph is what? Maybe a generous 50,000 cases. The corresponding (and slightly delayed) peak of the second (daily deaths) graph is about 2500. Comparing the last two peaks gives us 800,000 cases and 2700 deaths. The ratio of deaths to cases in the first wave as 2500/50000, or 5%. For the last wave, it's 2700/800000, or 0.3%.

There are many confounding factors that complicate comparing these numbers. A few: The earlier strains of the virus were harder to catch, but more dangerous than omicron. Much more of the population has been vaccinated or caught the illness already, and many of the most susceptible to death have already died.

Even if the vaccine didn't do a damned thing -- a contention I disagree with -- Hinderaker's handwaving to the effect that things are just as bad (if not worse!) than ever is ... debatable, to put it mildly.

Indeed, by falling for the temptation to use the same standard that his opponents incorrectly use for pandemic severity, Hinderaker makes an unforced error, and misses the chance to argue for a better measure, and one which delivers good news at that.

-- CAV

P.S. Hinderaker also falls for the false zero Covid/pretend Covid doesn't exist dichotomy when he speaks of "covid receding into the past."

Covid is becoming endemic, but what we are done with (or close to done with) is the point at which hospital capacity could be overwhelmed by the disease -- not that that made the actions of numerous despotic officials okay, either.