Two on Ukraine

Over at Hot Air, Allahpundit considers the possible outcomes of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, including the prospect of a battlefield defeat for Russia. The following is an excerpt of an excerpt regarding that last possibility:

Image by Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, via Wikimedia Commons, license.

On Feb. 28, Mikk Marran, the head of Välisluureamet, Estonia's foreign intelligence service, told New Lines that he didn't believe Putin could "keep up an intensive war for more than two months" and that ultimately "Russia will not win this war."

A senior Estonian analyst with years of experience tracking Russia's military affairs concurs with that assessment but doesn't even think it'll take another two months to bear fruit -- it already is doing so ...

"If Russia does not achieve a remarkable advance by the end of this week, it is difficult to see how [the advance] should come at all," Karl said late this week ...

If Russia doesn't achieve remarkable success in the next few days, it would leave the door open for Ukrainian troops to start large-scale counteroffensives. The first aim would be to drive Russia out of the country in the north around Kyiv and Kharkiv. [bold added by Allahpundit]

Allahpundit considers the scenario of a battlefield defeat "unlikely," and perhaps he's right, but considering some of the people making the speculation, I think there's something to it. To my own mind -- which I'll admit, lacks a lot of data -- a series of cascading failures seems almost inevitable, if Russian supplies, reserves, readiness, and training are as awful as they appear to be.

The second piece, "What's Really Happening in Ukraine," comes from someone who has spent lots of time in Ukraine in as either a diplomat or a missionary. This piece is good for reality-checking the idea that there is lots of sympathy for Russia in Ukraine, among other things:

... Russian speakers in Ukraine were and are vastly freer than in Russia itself. They have no interest in joining Putin -- even before the invasion only 7 percent of eastern Ukraine wanted union with Russia. The past few weeks have demonstrated this with perfect clarity. Witness the steadfast courage of the eastern Ukrainian cities in fighting the invaders. Even since Kherson fell, the citizens have not given up, courageously protesting daily and demanding the Russians leave. If you need more proof, witness the two million, mostly Russian-speaking refugees who have left Ukraine. They're running from Russia for safety, not toward it. [italics in original, links omitted]

Although I don't agree with everything in either piece, I think each raises valuable points that make them worth reading in full.

-- CAV