Serendipity, 'Failing Faster,' and Advice

Friday, July 07, 2023

Over the past week someone at Hacker News solicited links to the personal weblogs of the many members of that site, and someone else created a blogroll of all of them -- 1423 as I write this post. The blogroll is quite well done, and has a button that will open a random listing.

A great way to find interesting material is to hit that thing a few times with a finger planted on the control key and scan the tabs. I did that this morning and found a post by Aaron Hartshorn titled "Notes On Owning Your Own Business."

In the spirit of sharing some serendipity, let me recommend reading the whole thing, especially if you own or envision owning your own business. I particularly liked his "loop" model, which he refers to throughout, but explains for the first time as follows:

There is a process, which you need to know about and think about, as you run a small business. It is a loop, which can be divided into four parts:
  • Try something (typically involves spending $$ and/or time)
  • Get results (typically involves receiving $$ or saving time)
  • Observe that result (notice what just happened)
  • Plan your next thing to try
It may seem so simple and straightforward, that there's no point in stating it. But, most business failures can be traced ultimately to one of the following breaks in the loop...
Things get much more interesting quickly, and I'd say that if you've ever heard the advice to fail faster, this is a tutorial on how to do that constructively.

Again, the whole thing is good from beginning to end. I wish my much younger self had heard the opening section, especially this: The most important thing to know, is that being a business owner is NOT like being an employee, except without the boss.

That said, his ending is great, too, in that it addresses the surfeit of advice entrepreneurs get from every direction 24/7:
Image by Tim Mossholder, via Unsplash, license.
... There are absolutely small businesses that actually support their owners, but they are not the majority. So, just because the person talking to you is a business owner, does not actually tell you if they know what they are talking about. They might have been running "in the red" for years, but some other source of money has been making up the difference.

...

... [E]ven if a lot of people say the same thing, it doesn't necessarily mean that it's correct, unless the people saying it are actually successful business owners.

It may be worth listening to ideas from other people, but the only way to really know if that new idea will work, is to take it around The Loop (see above) once, and Observe the results. Therefore, it needs to not be an idea which, if it doesn't work, will put you into bankruptcy. No matter how many people say that it's a good idea to (for example) spend a lot of money on remodeling your storefront, if it doesn't work, it will be Your Mistake, and no one else will help you to recover. Don't assume that advice, because it is frequently given, is likely to be correct.

And, when you see a lot of other small businesses doing something, and you find yourself wondering "why doesn't that work when I do it?", consider the possibility that it isn't really working when they do it, either.
The author writes based on his experience as an independent contractor and his observations of his wife's experience of running a small retail outlet. The latter also gets in a few words.

-- CAV

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Gus,

Your post brings to mind the old joke about the business owner who is answering questions from an Industrial Commission bureaucrat who is officiously inquiring as to the wages he pays his workers.

"So what does your top employee make per hour?
"Well, that's old Joe, he knows what he's doing and does it well and doesn't waste time around the water cooler. He stays until the job is done even if that means staying after hours. I pay him $20.00 per hour plus overtime.

"What's your average employee make?
"Most of my employees spend about 30% of their time on non-work related things and wasting time. I'd say my average paid wage is $12.00 per hour.

"Who do you pay the least to?
"Well, I got one stupid bastard that works 18 hours a day, seems to make all sorts of mistakes and finally ends up making less than minimum wage.

"That's the guy I wanna speak with.
"You're talkin' to him right now.

As someone who has been self-employed the majority of his adult life, I can tell you that this only funny cuz it's true. And sometimes the gubmint rubs salt in the wound.

About 20 years ago I owned a small packaging and shipping store that provided other services to my customers. UPS had just taken full ownership of Mailboxes etc; Fedex had just bought Kinkos which made them both my direct competitors.

I polled my customers as to their intentions. They all swore that they appreciated the service and the atmosphere of my independent operation so I decided to continue in business.

As in all things retail, convenience trumps intention. My customers decided that the shipping store in close proximity to their shopping was preferred, and for the next two years I lost money hand over fist. If it weren't for other endeavors, would have been out of money in short order.

At the end of the 2nd year I made the decision to close the store. I had acquired $250,000 in debt and even though I gross close to 500K that year, my net - across all my businesses - was a mere $29,000.00

And then the other shoe dropped. Because of the large gross and the small net, I 'qualified' for the Alternative Minimum Tax - passed under Jimmy Carter as 'Because the Millionaire pays fewer taxes than his Secretary Act' - and of that $29K, the IRS took $13,700.00 of it.

I remember hearing that this Millionaire tax would only be used against the wealthy. With a net of 29K, I didn't realize that I was so rich! The things you can learn only with gov't help!

c andrew

Gus Van Horn said...

C.,

That is truly an awful surprise you got at the end!

Gus