A Three Clown Race?

Over at Hot Air is speculation about a possible third-party run for the Presidency by RFK, Jr.

Naturally, it is difficult to read without being splashed due to the resident Trumpites drooling at the prospect. Early polling indicates that the kooky Kennedy will draw more votes from the Democrats than he will from the Republicans:

Image by Maxlovestoswim, via Wikimedia Commons, license.

If the Democrats and Republicans nominate Biden and Trump respectively, and Kennedy runs as an independent, 33 percent of Democratic voters would "likely" vote for him according to the poll, including 14 percent who would be "very likely" to back him.

Among likely voters as a whole, 25 percent said they would likely vote for Kennedy if he runs against Biden and Trump, including 14 percent of Republicans, with 10 percent saying they are "very likely" to cast their ballots this way.

It's early days, and I can see those numbers going either way.

RFK, Jr.'s numbers may be as high as they are simply because (a) he has name recognition that is favorable, deservedly or not; and (b) he looks at first like a ready solution to anyone concerned about the age of the next President.

Either party could instantly fix that problem by nominating a younger candidate. (I have seen speculation that the Democrats could well throw Biden under the bus at the last minute, much as they did Robert Torricelli ahead of New Jersey's 2002 Senate election.)

But if we do end up with Trump-Biden, I can't imagine partisans not panicking and closing ranks behind their respective albatrosses. Democrats viscerally hate Trump, and which Republicans does Kennedy appeal to, anyway? I can think of two sets: (1) anti-vax kooks, who are all basically Trumpists, anyway; and (2) anti-Trump Republicans looking to cast a protest vote, some of whom might have second thoughts.

How much of the independent vote he'd get really depends on how off-putting most people find his views on vaccines after those become more well-known to more people. I am afraid to even try guessing an answer to that.

The ultimate outcome of a Trump-Biden-Kennedy race is anyone's guess, in my opinion: Trump and Biden are both so awful that almost anyone would look good by comparison: I can imagine Kennedy winning.

More interesting to me are the ramifications of two scenarios, only one of which is mentioned (and only in passing at that): how he would affect a race that included a No Labels candidate; and how he would affect a race that included a non-Trump Republican.

I think No Labels would effectively eliminate RFK Jr. as a viable candidate because there would then be a young and sane alternative who could win. Indeed, by draining kooks from each of the major parties, RFK Jr. could perhaps improve the chance of No Labels winning. (Earth to No Labels!)

What I worry about is his effect on, say, a Biden-Haley race. I could see disgruntled Trumpists/anti-vax Republicans voting for RFK Jr. instead of the Republican, handing the Presidency back to the Democrats, whether Biden or a last-minute substitute is running.

As it stands, I am inclined to hope the Democrats placate RFK, Jr. enough in some way that he doesn't do his third-party end-run at all.

-- CAV