Some Honeymoon?

Yesterday, I opined that the Harris campaign strategy of pouncing on the oddness of J. D. Vance is a brilliant move, at least as a way of reframing the presidential contest.

I stand by those words, but there is an interesting caveat: At some point, unless Trump manages to alienate enough people on his own, Harris herself will have to do something to harness any momentum.

It's a big caveat, and partisan pundits on both sides are pointing it out.

Unsurprisingly, Trump backers are all over it, likening the Harris campaign to Joe Biden's "basement campaign:"

... If Kamala can't show up for an interview on friendly territory, where can she show up?

Image by Office of the President, via Wikimedia Commons, public domain.

The answer, it would seem, is nowhere. Newsweek published a piece by reporter Carlo Versano this week about the fact that Harris hasn't done an interview since June 24. In true MSM fashion, the piece has a "Republicans pounce" angle in it, seen not only in the article itself ("Republicans immediately pounced") but even in the two-line title: "Kamala Harris Hasn't Done an Interview in Weeks. Republicans Have Noticed." But at least the magazine has been forced to notice themselves and give their various excuses as to why she hasn't done any: she doesn't want to take the focus off of Trump who is supposedly stumbling; she has given extended interviews in the past; she is doing fundraisers and political events; and so forth... [bold added]

The same point surfaces in a piece at Vox asking if Harris really is beating Trump at the polls:

[T]here are other things she hasn't done yet. For instance: She hasn't given an interview or press conference since Biden quit, which is something Republicans are grousing about... [link omitted, bold added]

This point comes up in the context of what might go wrong for Harris -- and after the following description of a "honeymoon" period in the polls, which sounds pretty tame compared to the one she squandered four years ago:

Last week's Bloomberg/Morning Consult polls were encouraging for Harris overall, showing her taking a big lead in Michigan and smaller leads in Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada. The catch is that they also showed Trump ahead in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, plus a tie in Georgia. If those polls were accurate, the election would come down entirely to Georgia's outcome.

And other recent swing state polls -- from Fox, Public Policy Polling, and Emerson -- have shown Trump continuing to hold small leads in most swing states.

It is possible that the sparse swing state polling has been slow to catch up to Harris's improving national vibes -- and that a set of new polls showing Harris gaining a clear advantage is right around the corner. [links omitted, bold add]

It is hard to get a bead on how either candidate is doing, partly because both are so weak, and partly because their respective partisans are prone to gushing: My remedy is to look at polling data curated by left- and right- leaning sites, usually Electoral Vote for the former and RealClear Politics (See also their "no toss-ups map.) for the latter.

Spoiler alert: There has been barely any motion at all, aside from the race being slightly tighter.

Interestingly, as with reading the vibes, so it is with interpreting how the candidates are doing at the retail level.

Last week, for example, Donald Trump stepped into what I would have expected to be a lion's den -- a meeting of an association of black journalists. By most accounts I saw, he made an ass of himself -- but read the earlier-linked piece for how supporters saw it.

The fact remains that each candidate needs non-partisan support and, although Joe Biden won by hiding in his basement while Trump ranted and raved, Trump was also fresh on everyone's minds.

It isn't so clear to me that Harris can do this, even if she does, as Vox says, have a claim as the "change" candidate simply by virtue of her youth and "race."

If Harris wants to get anywhere beyond temporarily helping Democrats pretend they haven't just managed to reelect Trump, she's going to have to go out there and open her mouth. And make sense. And be able to explain why she does or does not support the "vote-killing" positions she was known for until just recently.

Uh-Oh.

-- CAV