Admit Knowledge Limits to Build Credibility

A recent Faye Flam column about the scientific/medical commentary of Michael Osterholm raised a great point that usually went missing during the pandemic:

Being a good detective -- or a good scientist -- means recognizing uncertainty and being willing to change your mind when new information surfaces. Brown's [Ashish] Jha points out that during the early days of the pandemic, politicians and their scientific advisors didn't have the ability to wait for all the facts; they had to make major policy decisions amid uncertainty and scientific disagreement. At the same time, they were facing an unpredictable stream of misinformation, and a president who often undermined their efforts -- stating publicly with confidence that the virus would "go away" "like a miracle," or that the drug hydroxychloroquine would be "one of the biggest game changers in the history of medicine"

But to Osterholm, facing such challenges calls for nuance. That means not overstating certainty or flattening complicated scientific reality into blunt slogans like "vaccines work," which, over time, erode public trust. He identifies the explosion of cases in mid-2021, when even vaccinated people were getting sick with the Delta variant, as a proof point. Officials hadn't done enough to share the unknowns, he says: "It looked like we lied." [bold added]

In today's ridiculous political climate, I find it necessary to mention that Osterholm, whom I hadn't heard of until this morning, opposed lockdowns and masking mandates, and yet himself wore an N95 mask in public longer than the mandates based on his own personal risk assessment.

In other words, he didn't just talk the talk, he walked the walk of the kind of voice we could have used more of during the pandemic. He puts it best himself: to scare people into their wits, rather than out of their wits or pretend everything was fine.

If our government were to become serious about dealing with pandemics, I would hope it would prepare its policy in advance as outlined here, and adopt a communication strategy like Osterholm's.

-- CAV