New Voters Migrate to GOP

Ahead of the election, there is a voter registration trend that would ordinarily augur well for Donald Trump:

"The GOP leads by a point in party identification right now. The average when the Republican Party loses is the Democrats ahead by eight. When the Republican Party wins, the average party ID advantage for Democrats is at three. Republicans right now, are doing even better than the average when they win," [Harry Enten of CNN] explained.

Interesting, but two other variables coming into play probably explain why the race remains really tight, and why that should not and might not matter.

The first is where these new voters are coming from:

They're picking up ground in the areas you'd expect: non-college white-dominated areas, coal country in the northeast, southwest outside of Pittsburgh. The bottom line is, the registration trends we've been seeing over the last few cycles -- with Republicans dominating among non-college white voters -- are very much showing up in party registration.

The piece goes on to note that similar dynamics are playing out nationally.

I forget where I saw this, but I recall that this is a demographic that (a) typically shows up to vote less reliably than others, and (b) trended more Democrat in the past. Given Trump's populism and his Democrat-lite agenda, it is no surprise that this group of voters would migrate.

The second variable is how well Trump sits with traditional Republicans or the educated or suburban voters. The piece doesn't directly address this question, but I can't help but imagine not well would answer that question and help explain the following:

... Harris is doing slightly better among Democrats than Trump is among Republicans...

Trump is not doing as well as Harris within his own party, even with all these new voters?

There is a little something to cheer for Trump: He can win. There is nothing for "fiscal conservatives" and small-l libertarians who were Republican or leaned Republican in the past: What difference does it make?

The GOP is not a home to such voters, given that its economic program is arguably worse than Harris's. (And the anti-abortion/religious agenda doesn't sweeten the deal, to say the least.)

Given this shift, which may well mark the end of the GOP as we knew it or the beginning of a larger political realignment, RINO isn't just an insult Trumpists throw our way while assuming we'll "come [to their] home:" It's increasingly true, and it's time for those who still call themselves Republicans to ask: What am I doing here, and why should I stay?

-- CAV