Two Wars Sink Assad Regime

Over the weekend, Bashar al-Assad, the brutal dictator of Syria, fled to Russia for political asylum after his regime collapsed like the house of cards it was, having been propped up for many years by Iran and Russia, as noted in an analysis by CNN:

The swiftly changing fate of Bashar al-Assad was not really made in Syria, but in southern Beirut and Donetsk. Without the physical crutches of Russia's air force and Iran's proxy muscle Hezbollah, he toppled when finally pushed.

Israel's brutal yet effective two-month war on Hezbollah probably did not pay much mind to Assad's fate. But it may have decided it. Likewise, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, 34 months ago, likely considered little how few jets or troops it might leave Moscow to uphold its Middle Eastern allies with. But the war of attrition has left Russia "incapable" of assisting Assad, even President-elect Donald Trump noted on Saturday. And indeed Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov cut a weakened figure this weekend, saying: "What is the forecast? I cannot guess. We are not in the business of guessing." These are not the words of a steadfast and capable guarantor, rather those of a regional power seeing its spinning plates hit the floor.

Iran has been wildly hamstrung in the past six months, as its war with Israel, usually in the shadows or deniable, evolved into high-stakes and largely ineffective long-range missile attacks. Its main proxy, Hezbollah, was crippled by a pager attack on its hierarchy, and then by weeks of vicious airstrikes. Tehran's pledges of support have done little so far but result in a joint statement with Syria and Iraq on "a need for collective action to confront" the rebels. [bold added]

The article correctly notes that, for as good a thing the end of the Assad family's half-century of rule is, the immediate future is uncertain, and not necessarily an improvement for Syria's bordering countries.

Here are just a few problems facing the region after the end of this devil they knew: The victorious rebels are Islamists, and are backed by Turkey, whose Islamist leader is an enemy of Israel -- and recently declared war on Western Civilization. The arsenal of the Assad regime, which includes chemical weapons, is now in danger of falling into the hands of people much more likely to want to use them against Israel. (Israel is doing what it can now to limit this last threat.)

Overall, this presents a golden opportunity for Israel to finish off Iran's ability to threaten it -- but also one for Turkey to simply replace Iran as Israel's biggest threat.

I agree with Yaron Brook (podcast embedded above) that the situation could cause Iran to move faster towards readying and deploying nuclear weapons, and with others that it is high time to marginalize Turkey, and has been for some time.

-- CAV