Trump Tariffs: Down but Not Out

The BBC discusses what's next, short- and long-term, after the recent US Court of International Trade decision on the legality of the "Liberation Day" tariffs.

As you probably already know, the ruling has been set aside temporarily for legal reasons. But what happens if the Supreme Court rules in the same way? Given that tariffs have been a longstanding idée fixe for the President and are a cornerstone of his agenda, how much of an impact will the ruling have after he and his cronies find ways around it?

Decidedly mixed:

[E]ven if Trump lost [in the Supreme Court] it would not necessarily spell the end of his tariff plans.

For one thing, the ruling noted that the president does have the power to impose tariffs of up to 15% for 150 days to address concerns about the balance of trade, which the White House had argued were an emergency.

If the administration chose to go that route, those new tariffs could go into effect within days, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs.

Trump could also turn to the other, more established laws that he used in his first term to justify tariffs, which focus on issues such as national security and unfair trade policies. Those require investigations and periods of public comment before tariffs go into effect.

Goldman Sachs said Trump might also turn to an untested part of a 1930 trade law that allows the president to impose tariffs of up to 50% on imports from countries that "discriminate" against the US. [bold added]

The best-case scenario, assuming both a Supreme Court loss in the current legal battle and Trump trying to maximize his ability to levy tariffs at whim, I'd expect him to use his ability to levy 15% tariffs to the hilt, while causing another round of lawsuits by using the 1930's law similarly to the way he abused the International Emergency Economic Powers Act for his "Liberation Day" tariffs.

We're not out of the woods by any stretch, although Trump could change tariffs by smaller amounts and perhaps not on a daily basis.

To my legally uneducated mind, the best-case I can see is that Trump also loses on the 1930's law and can only moderately screw everyone with 15% tariffs after that.

-- CAV