Why Trump's Swivel on Ukraine?

Trump has sounded tough (for him) on Ukraine lately.

Given his embarrassing, years-long man-crush on Vlad Putin, one naturally wonders Why just now?

One should also wonder For how long?

At least for the first question, Jonathan Lemire of The Atlantic has you covered, and the answer will not inspire confidence:

The change, though, is not reflective of Trump adopting a new strategic worldview, two White House officials and two outside advisers to the president told me, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters. Trump did not develop a new fondness for Ukraine or its president, Volodymyr Zelensky. He did not abruptly become a believer in the traditional transatlantic alliances prized by his predecessors as a counterweight to Moscow. Rather, Trump got insulted.

By ignoring Trump's pleas to end the war and instead ratcheting up the fighting, Putin has made Trump look like the junior partner in the relationship. The Russian leader has "really overplayed his hand," one of the officials told me. "The president has given him chance after chance, but enough is enough."

Trump has a fragile ego and craves attention, so if he becomes aware he looks bad to enough people -- with his backing down from "Liberation Day" tariffs being a prime example -- he will alter course, at least for a while.

Continuing with tariffs as an example, we shouldn't expect a big or lasting change from Trump's past behavior as practically a Russian asset, barring more humiliation.

One might still ask Why now? Putin has been making a fool of Trump for ages already. Perhaps part of the problem is how easily-distracted Trump is. Certainly, as the Atlantic indicates, the pro-Russian elements on his inner circle bear much of the blame.

The long-term question, then, might be: Is Putin (or a Putin successor) going to be outrageous enough for long enough that even Trump comes to his senses and effectively switches sides?

As with tariffs -- where markets seem to assume the courts will save Trump from himself -- perhaps in this foreign policy matter, Putin will accidentally do the same.

-- CAV