Another Warnock in Mississippi?

In the New York Times, E.J. Dionne asks, "Could Mississippi Elect Its First Black Senator Since Reconstruction?"

While Scott Colom, the candidate in question, is not a minister, the piece notes that he is quite religious, and he reminds me a bit of Raphael Warnock (D-GA), and James Talarico -- who is polling ahead of the charisma-challenged, corrupt James Paxton, whom Trump hand-picked to get rid of the quite electable incumbent, John Cornyn.

Donald Trump, aided by the spinelessness of a party that should have at least tried to keep him under control, has made what might have been unthinkable only a few years ago into a distinct possibility.

This he has achieved by (1) adopting unpopular and foolish economic policies that have hit Americans in the wallet; and (2) pandering to racists on top of demanding state legislators gerrymander their voting districts to eliminate Democratic seats.

The former will fail to motivate fiscal conservatives -- and the latter will strongly motivate traditionally Democratic constituencies -- to show up to vote.

This is doubly bad news for Republicans in Mississippi.

First, here's a taste of the position the incumbent finds herself in:

They form the core of his critique of Ms. Hyde-Smith, whom he sometimes refers to as "Cindy High Prices." With inflation a central issue everywhere, she gave him an unexpected opening when a local television interviewer asked her about the rising price of beef. She replied, "You know you have so many proteins to choose from." [bold added]

This is even less inspiring than Your daughter doesn't need 30 dolls for Christmas, coming as it does from the political party that once owned the economy as an issue.

Second, the non-Republican elephant in the room in Mississippi, demographics, can easily kick in to make the upset happen:

There is hard math behind Mr. Colom's thinking. Mississippi Democrats start with a strong base in the Black community, which represents 37 percent of the population, the largest share of any state. The longstanding rule of thumb, as Mr. Colom's pollster Margie Omero told me, is that a Democrat can win by securing high turnout among Black voters and roughly a quarter of the white vote. [bold added]

To this native Mississippian, the piece makes interesting reading, although Dionne gets one thing partly wrong:

Senator Warnock, first elected in a dramatic December runoff after President Joe Biden's 2020 victory, alluded to the not-so-behind-the-scenes battle over whether national Democrats should add Mississippi to the growing list of states in which they're investing. "Believe me when I say Mississippi has the ingredients of our win in Georgia, and then some," he said. "I'm also pushing the Democratic Party to invest more in the South. I think the Democratic Party fails to invest in the South at its own peril."

If by invest, he means, fund candidates, he's correct to cite Warnock. If he also means, send national figures there or play up progressive messaging, he's wrong. Voters in Mississippi are more socially conservative (and religious) in general, and this includes blacks. If national Democrats come in sounding like wokescolds, they will alienate many of these voters for various reasons.

It's already an uphill battle for Colom: If there is any doubt that he is anything other than a traditional Democrat, he will lose.

-- CAV