Nasrallah Finally Dead: What It Can Mean

Over the weekend, the Israeli Defense Forces bombed a heavily fortified bunker deliberately situated beneath a residential high-rise, killing Hassan Nasrallah, the thoroughly evil head of Iran's strongest proxy, Hezbollah.

It took 80 tons of bunker-busting bombs and culminated years of meticulous intelligence-gathering -- that picked up pace when the Islamist militia fought on the side of Syria's dictator over a decade ago:

The new data allowed Israel to compile extensive profiles on Hezbollah's operatives, including the top chiefs who would attend the funerals of the slain fighters.

Narrowing its targets, the Jewish state then began hacking into the terror group's communication devices, with spies able to track down the exact movements of Hezbollah's operatives -- sometimes through their wives' cell phones.

Israel's spies also tracked Hezbollah leaders' movements by hacking surveillance cameras in Lebanon, and even reading their cars' odometers.

As a result, Israel learned that whenever the routines of the terror group deviated, an attack was imminent, Israeli officials told the FT.

That very thing occurred on Friday as Israel bombarded Beirut, with officials learning that Nasrallah was en route to his "command and control" bunker.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in New York for his speech at the United Nations when he green-lit the decision to drop Israel's ideal weapon to take out Nasrallah.

The Jewish state had been planning the attack for months as it developed bombs outfitted with timed explosions that would dig through the earth, allowing the next bomb to reach further down, the Wall Street Journal reports. [links omitted]

For the implications of this major historical development, I recommend three analyses:

• Jared Kushner's X post on why this castration of Hezbollah is such a welcome development. The post errs somewhat on the optimistic side, but there is no denying this immediate benefit:

  ... Iran is now fully exposed. The reason why their nuclear facilities have not been destroyed, despite weak air defense systems, is because Hezbollah has been a loaded gun pointed at Israel. Iran spent the last forty years building this capability as its deterrent.

• For one possible immediate problem, the threat still posed by Syria, Naftali Hazony's X thread sounds plausible to me:

  As long as Iran controls Syria, it can continue to supply Hezbollah with rockets and drones to attack Israel's cities. It can also send troops to counter any Israeli invasion. This means that Israel's primary goal should now be to confront Iran.

• Finally, Yaron Brook's podcast, which I also embed below, is very good for historic and military context, as well as possible implications.

I am no Middle East expert, but it seems quite clear to me that the biggest boon to this news is that there is a clear window of opportunity to end Iran's nuclear weapons program and topple its regime.

If I recall correctly, Brook covers this in about the first hour, before taking questions. I didn't have time to hear many of those, which could include related analysis.

This is fantastic news.

-- CAV