GOP: Rein Trump in Now, or Dems Will Later

David Drucker of The Dispatch takes a look at the Republican Party's overall performance in various midterm elections and sees trouble for the GOP if current trends continue:

[S]pecial elections are imperfect political weathervanes. Indeed, sometimes, they can be downright lousy forecasters of upcoming midterm elections. Plus, as [political handicapper Kyle] Kondik highlighted in our exchange, these days, Democratic voters are more likely than Republicans to participate in irregularly scheduled special elections.

And so, if this discussion was only about the results in Tennessee 7, [Speaker Mike] Johnson might have a point. Or at least, his argument might be more compelling. But with this year's special elections for House seats now behind us, this is about a consistent pattern throughout the first year of Trump's second term -- a pattern that has seen the Democrats significantly improve on their 2024 margins in the four such contests held prior to last week's in Tennessee. Per a handy chart put together by NBC News' Steve Kornacki, the average movement toward the Democrats in those four specials was 18 points. [bold added]

His overall take, Sometimes winning isn't enough, is consistent with mine on Tennessee 7 and recent polling showing Trump's approval tanking in two major parts of the coalition he rode into office: suburban and Hispanic voters.

-- CAV