'Shy Republicans' -- but the Other Way Around?

A Daily Mail piece about the Talarico-Paxton senatorial race in Texas speaks of "shy Republicans," a term I've heard more than once before, going way back to Dubya in 2004.

The term has since been reapplied to Trump supporters, and is popping up in news media again.

This time, however, with the unpopularity of the corrupt candidate Trump chose to replace the incumbent John Cornyn, the term is being used for Republican voters who plan to vote against their party's candidate. There is speculation about whether polls are underestimating the number of Republicans who plan to vote for Talarico, but are averse to admitting as much in public:

Celebrated attorney Thomas J Henry, who [once] gave $600,000 to a pro-Paxton PAC, on Wednesday night published a video on social media endorsing Talarico. He said in the clip, which received 24,000 likes in under 24 hours, that he had met with Talarico and discussed issues at length, finding him to be 'balanced, straightforward and honest.'

'I think there are going to be many, many people that are Republicans that are going to vote for Talarico,' Henry told the Daily Mail. 'And I can tell you, as a lawyer, I have dealt with many people that are on juries that are very conservative, and people that you'd think would be very liberal, and I've seen them make decisions based on certain circumstances that are not consistent with what you think they would be based on a label.

'So I think we have to give people credit for making up their own mind.'

Will it be enough to get Talarico over the line, making him the first Democrat to represent Texas in the nation's capital in 33 years?

I am not sure so many Republicans who vote for Talarico will share Henry's enthusiasm for Talarico so much as be appalled at what an atrocious character and record Paxton has, but the note about people exercising their own judgement in private stands.

As for the reluctance, I think the below might be a fair indication of the tribalist pressure many such people will feel:

His wife warned him [lifelong Republican James Edge] against it, cautioning that they would lose friends. Indeed, they have: Some now shun him in the streets. So conservative is his Brazos County home that, after he made his declaration, the local radio station invited him on air -- and then received a barrage of hate mail.

'It was as if an earthquake shifted in my world, in the area around my home,' he told the Daily Mail. 'I would think it would be relatively uninteresting, what my position would be on this. I am a well-known Republican, and a city councilor, but our city is fairly small - it's only 100,000 people.

'The attention that this has drawn has been fascinating. I have heard from countless people: individuals that are currently elected Republicans in Brazos County; staffers throughout the state of Texas that work for Republican officeholders. And they have said, "Thank you, I agree with you 100 percent. I'm with you, and I feel the same way. I can't vote for Ken Paxton."'

'But virtually none of them have been willing to do it publicly. And I fully understand that, because of the blowback that I have experienced, which has been unlike anything I really expected.'

I once lived in Texas, but am not as familiar with the electoral math there as I am with Mississippi's: I'm not sure how much crossing over Talarico would need to win. But the Daily Mail claims the race is "neck-and-neck" and even Republican voters who simply stay home or abstain in the Paxton race will help Talarico's effort.

-- CAV