Chinamerica Threat Roundup 5
Thursday, May 12, 2005
Welcome to the latest Chinamerica Roundup! This is a collection of news, analysis, and blogging pertaining to China as an emerging military threat with growing influence in a socialist Latin America.
The index to all related posts is here. Links to individual sections can be created by adding "#N" to the permalink for this page, where N is the section number (e.g., "...-roundup-5.html#2").
Is there anti-Japanese sentiment in Hong Kong? Has the frontrunner in Mexico's presidential race been bankrolling Marxist guerrillas with government funds? Are Chinese hackers attacking Japan? Find out the answers to these and many more questions in this week's roundup.
Riding Sun has a couple of interesting posts concerning Hong Kong. He discusses anti-Japanese protests (which had been "clamped down" on in other parts of China) continuing in Hong Kong, of all places! From his quote of the AP story:
After weeks of acrimony between Beijing and Tokyo, Chinese leaders have appealed for calm, warning against damaging important economic ties with Japan, one of the country's most important trading partners and sources of aid and investment.But don't worry. The Gaijin Biker notes that there were only 20 protestors! Sounds like the AP is helping China pretend that (1) there really is free speech in Hong Kong (more to the contrary below) and (2) the other protests weren't goaded by the Chi Comms, after all.
...But protests were allowed in Hong Kong, a former British colony that enjoys Western-style civil liberties under Chinese rule.
But if China is thus far unable to whip up a big anti-Japanese riot in Hong Kong it can still severely curtail freedom there. In this post, Gaijin Biker comments on the threat to the independence of Hong Kong's judiciary posed by China. The point of departure for that post is the overturning, by Hong Kong's high court, of the convictions of eight members of Falun Gong stemming from their participation in a 2002 protest.
Needless to say, Chinese officials are unhappy about the judgement. Milton J. Madison offers an interesting take on the whole controversy.
How weak is the PRC and their leaders if they cannot handle a few meditators in their midst. These PRC "leaders" are an absolute joke and therefore dangerous to everybody else in the world since we will never know what other innocuous thing will set them into panic mode. I just wonder what planet do they come from and why they even open their mouths when such idiotic stuff comes out of it? They really do have to learn that the world no longer revolves around the middle kingdom and that their juvenile actions and rants do not play well in the rest of the world. Watch out for these people[: T]hey are dangerous in their stupidity.When I first saw this post, I thought, "Oh good! The commies are weak and they're losing it!" Unfortunately, China's military is becoming stronger, making it possible for more than just the Chinese to suffer from the fragile egos of its leaders.
But I'm not quite done with the subject of China's "one country, two systems" idea being proved a total joke.
Here is a very fine example of the danger to freedoms in the region. This printer is ceasing to provide printing services to the Falun Gong [in Hong Kong], the outlawed meditation sect in the PRC.So much for the tradition of freedom of speech inherited from the British in Hong Kong....
It is easy to understand the fear that the printer has of potentially becoming a pawn in the designs of the PRC's CCP leadership for regional hegemony. If everyone is afraid to print or publish materials critical of the PRC leadership, then the CCP can control the propaganda.
But how can you effectively oppress your own people, much less spread tyranny to neighboring nations, like Taiwan, without a strong military? China has been spending a staggering amount of money lately in developing its military, and I have voiced concerns before in this series of posts about its access to technology. A couple of stories on that subject surfaced this week, both indicating that technology with military value might be quite easy for China to acquire.
First, there's this interesting incident involving a Russian submarine being sold to China for scrap.
A decommissioned submarine with military equipment on board intended for export as metal scrap to China was detained by Petropavlovsk-Kamtchatsky customs inspectors, a press statement from the city’s customs department said Thursday.We most commonly hear of the danger of fissile material being sold to rogue states by Russia or at least entities in Russia like crime syndicates, but this shows us that the same thing can easily happen with other militarily valuable items. It might, unfortunately, be a safe bet that China's getting its hands on a lot of Russian submarine technology.
And then there's more, on a subject I've brought up before: China's practice of confiscating intellectual property from firms stupid enough to do business with them. This article gives us a good idea of how bad that situation is.
Four years [after joining the W.T.O.], China has not met its intellectual property obligations, and the United States has failed to leverage the W.T.O. mechanisms that might bring China into compliance. Although China has passed intellectual property laws that accord with W.T.O. requirements, the Office of the United States Trade Representative reported to Congress in last December that enforcement of those laws was inconsistent, ineffective and discriminatory against foreigners. The same report found intellectual property infringement in China to be rampant, with violations worsening.The article states that, "[I]f China ... won't honor its intellectual property obligations, President Bush and Congress will need to reconsider this country's trade relations with China." I certainly agree with that. I disagree with the timing, though. I'm in favor of reconsidering now.
(2) China's Relations with Taiwan
The tensions between China and Taiwan appear to be dying down, at least for now, with China still sounding belligerent. In Business Week is a fawning interview with Lien Chan, the Taiwanese opposition leader whose response to China's anti-secession law and military buildup was to fly to China to ask, "How high?" Here's a sample, with emphasis added.
Q: Is Taiwan becoming too economically dependent on China?Economic integration with a state that, for example, confiscates intellectual property, is beneficial for one which respects intellectual property enough to have "design and R&D capability?" Perhaps Lien already regards Taiwan's IP assets as Chinese property.
A: No. I think there is mutual dependency. Economic integration is mutually beneficial for both sides, and as a result we have interdependency. It's a fact that the market is in China along with the labor force, while the management talent is here in Taiwan with high-tech capability and plenty of capital. When you combine both sides, the result is what we see today. Mainland China is growing up fast, so we will be able to offer other attributes that we have such as financial-services talent, original-equipment-manufacturing skills, and design and R&D capability.It's a constantly moving situation, but I still believe that mutual dependence will be very clear.
But, hey, China's not a threat according to this headline in the Houston Chronicle: "China says it will sit tight if Taiwan does." Setting aside that little matter about China being the aggressor, let's consider again what is meant by "sit tight." According to the article, the definition depends on which country we're talking about.
Chinese leaders said that "as long as Taiwan authorities do not pursue Taiwan independence, a conflict across the Taiwan Strait could be effectively avoided," Soong said at a news conference.Where's Lien Chan when you need him? I could promise to "sit tight" (meaning, "not put him in the hurt locker") if he'd "sit tight" (meaning, "refuse to hand me his wallet and the keys to his car").
The Gaijin Biker has a funny take on the cross-strait conflict, which China seems to think can be papered over with a gift of giant pandas to Taiwan: He tries his own hand at "trading pandas for freedom." Here are a few.
If a nation values anything more than pandas, it will lose its pandas.
— Somerset Maugham
People hardly ever make use of the pandas they have.
— Søren Kierkegaard
So long as the people do not care to exercise their pandas, those who wish to tyrannize will do so.
— Voltaire
They may take our lives, but they'll never take our pandas!Heh! (And nice quotes if you trade pandas for freedom!) Update: Taiwan refuses to trade freedom -- for pandas, at least.
— Sir William Wallace (in "Braveheart")
(3) China's Relations with Japan
Moving on to Japan, we have two stories. First, China is still refusing to apologize to Japan for damages related to the recent riots, but may compensate Japan for some of the damage. Second, in a country that so thoroughly censors its internet that entire news sites are unavailable, internet attacks on Japanese interests are occurring!
I guess it's more important to ban blogs in China than it is to protect foreign guests from hacker attacks. On the matter of the ban on blogs, some are trying to rectify that situation. (For more on this, see Phatic Communion.)In the most recent incident, a coordinated attack was staged May 1 on the Web site of the Japanese Embassy in Beijing.
Industry sources and analysts said the attacks have caused financial losses and disrupted work at government agencies, businesses and religious centers. The sources were unable to quantify the losses, but the Web sites of the National Police Agency, the Self-Defense Forces and the Defense and Foreign ministries have been taken down repeatedly.
Japanese universities and companies such as Sony Corp.'s subsidiary in China have also fallen prey to hackers posting anti-Japanese slogans in Chinese.
(4) China's Zombie Client States
This should sound strangely like China's foreign policy in Latin America, the emphasis of this series of posts. In Africa, a continent loaded with such zombies (and natural resources), China's influence has been on the rise.From Burma to Nepal to Zimbabwe, China is providing political, diplomatic, and security support to failing dictatorships. Beijing gives just enough help for the dictator to survive sanctions and domestic popular revolts, while the PRC gains a dependent state.
The faux-Communist witch doctors of Beijing are not propping up these unsuccessful governments for ideological reasons — quite the opposite. Nepal is an absolute monarchy, Burma is a military dictatorship, and Zimbabwe is governed by a once democratically chosen leader gone bad. In repayment for reanimating these near-dead regimes, the PRC is demanding — and getting — obedience to its nationalistic policies of creating strategic space around China, isolating Taiwan, securing critical resources, and guaranteeing markets for Chinese products.
China’s rapid ascension as an influential economic and political force in Africa is raising complex questions concerning the security of the African continent and the future of its people. China’s involvement on the continent has increased dramatically over the past several years, fueled by Africa’s growing demand for cheap Chinese products and the need for greater infrastructure investment in the African energy and transportation sectors.I have mentioned Chinese moves in Africa a couple of times before. This article does a good job of surveying the entire situation. And while I'm thinking about it, The American Thinker has been doing an excellent job of keeping up with events pertaining to China as well as those in Latin America. A third article touching on this same theme, but focusing on China's appetite for oil, recently appeared in the Houston Chronicle.
Africa possesses two key attributes which makes it an attractive investment for an expansionist China. First, it is a continent rich in the high-value, natural resources necessary to propel China’s maturing economy. Second, it offers a virtual sanctuary from American democratic ideology.
(5) Events in South America
Three stories pertaining to Venezuela expand upon a theme I touched upon last week: Venezuela's petroleum industry as milch cow for Chavez's welfare state. Last week, I mentioned that Chavez was sending in troops to "liberate" the workers on whose malcontented backs the Bolivarian Revolution was riding. The business end, in which Chavez buys votes and bribes his populace, is described in this article.
Another move by Chavez reveals the true priorities of the environmentalist group, Greenpeace. One could ask whether the group's crusades represent hatred for man and his achievements or misguided concern for nature. For an answer, one could note that Chavez is redistributing land from a nature preserve and ask, as A. M. Mora y Leon does at The American Thinker, "Where was Greenpeace?" (The article does a good job of pointing out the hypocrisy of Greenpeace although its slant is arguably environmentalist.)Across the country, oil proceeds are flowing to 130 centers with agricultural and industrial cooperatives. "We are 280 people, and all of us are owners of this business," said textile worker Marisol Bechara, 33.
She earns a monthly stipend of 168,000 bolivars, or about $78, studies in a program to finish high school and shops at a state market where food prices are up to half off those at private supermarkets.
Pertaining to Mexico are two developments. First, immigration across the border by Mexicans and Central Americans appears to be on the rise. Second, there is an interesting article over at The American Thinker that considers the possibility that Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the leftist mayor of Mexico City and frontrunner for the Mexican presidency, might have bankrolled Marxist guerrillas with municipal funds.
Leftist Mexico City mayor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, a potential Hugo Chavez who may be ruling Mexico by 2007, is now accused by a Mexican newspaper of allowing city funds to bankroll weapons purchases for Mexican Marxist guerrillas. If that's true, it's a worrisome portent of the kind of president AMLO may be.One caveat: The newspaper has close ties to the present Mexican government. Based on having followed this for awhile, I would not be surprised in the least if this turned out to be true.
The Mexican newspaper says that the mayor's office's funds went through Havana, Cuba, to Caracas, Venezuela, with the purchase of AK-47s facilitated by the Venezuelan government.
(6) North Korea
I have discussed this situation with respect to both China's likely complicity (State Dept. denies this report.) in helping them develop the bomb and to the news media's generally misleading reporting on the diplomatic efforts currently underway. (Update: In just the latest blatant example of the media picking sides against the United States in its international conflicts, Reuters accuses America of impeding the attempts to get the six-party talks going again!)
China has struggled [Really!] to restart six-nation negotiations on North Korea's nuclear ambitions, which stalled last June and also involve South Korea, Japan and Russia.North Korea may be about to test the bomb they are developing soon. According to David Ignatius, even that might be dangerous to neighboring countries.
Within a year, North Korea is likely to test a nuclear weapon, probably in a cave or mine shaft somewhere in the barren northeast of the country.
A small amount of radioactive fallout will leak from the test site and drift toward Japan. Financial markets in Tokyo and Seoul will be rocked by the news. Foreign companies in South Korea will weigh whether to pull out dependents or reduce their operations. And Washington will debate whether to impose a blockade or other tough measures to contain the North Korean nuclear breakout.
Time is running out on this one.
-- CAV
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