Commies on the March

[Update: For related posts, go here.]

I've been following the disturbing story of Red China's emergence as a hostile power for quite some time. As any sentient being knows, China is preparing to take over independent Taiwan. I've speculated that the Red Chinese might take advantage of our preoccupation with Islamofascism and/or North Korea to attack when we are least able to come to the aid of Taiwan.

I have also noted that China is the gatekeeper of the Panama Canal and has a natural ally in Hugo Chavez of Venezuela. The existence of a terrorist smuggling gang, M-13, in Central America would give Chavez an easy way to help China by sending terrorists into the United States through Mexico. Three recent items have direct bearing on all this, with the third being most ominous of all: That Chavez's brand of populism may well come to the fore in Mexico.

I'll point you to the stories in geographical order, starting with the farthest from home. Afterwards is an index of earlier posts on this combination of threats to our national security.

(1) James Dunigan describes an all-too possible scenario in which Red China could take Taiwan by surprise. (Via Instapundit, who has more.)

Even 900 ballistic missiles, which the Chinese will have in place during the next few years, would not be sufficient to shut down the Taiwanese armed forces. But if the missiles, and air strikes soon thereafter, could do enough damage to prevent the first wave of amphibious ships from getting hit bad, Taiwan would be in big trouble. In fact, if the Chinese could get control of the air over Taiwan for a day or so, three Chinese airborne divisions could be dropped on Taiwan as well.

Taiwan has always expected assistance from the U.S. Navy and Air Force. But without advance warning to get a carrier or two into the area, and a few hundred U.S. Air Force planes alerted for movement to Taiwan, Japan and Guam, the American assistance would be too late. Thus, for Taiwan, an [out-of-the-blue] attack, which the Chinese appear to be preparing to carry out, is something to worry about.

(2) Via RealClear Politics and TIA Daily is a good description of the virulent threat posed by Hugo Chavez. The whole thing is a must-read, and discusses the Venezuelan arms buildup, as well as Chavez's interference in the affairs of neighboring countries. The following post shows how Chavez could opt to kick us in the teeth with his oil card, or merely decide to help China by giving it a good oil deal. Or, perhaps, both.

Recognizing our economy's Achilles' heel, Chavez has threatened to cut off oil exports to the United States. Venezuela is our fourth-largest source of oil, providing 15 percent of U.S. oil needs (1.5 million barrels a day). This threat can't be ignored.

Curtailing exports would push already high American gas prices through the roof. Cognizant of this fact, Chavez recently proclaimed: "We have invaded the United States but with our oil."

Sure, it would be painful for Venezuela to cut off the 60 percent of its oil exports bound for the American market. But Venezuela is already looking to diversify its oil clientele beyond Uncle Sam.

Last December, Caracas struck a huge deal with Beijing for oil and gas [emphasis added] sales and investment in Venezuela's energy sector.

(3) And, worse, while some might think a China/Chavez/M-13 terrorist pipeline through Mexico might be speculative on my part, the following news makes it seem much more likely. Via Fresh Bilge, I learned that the leftist mayor of Mexico City, who I've heard is a favorite to win their upcoming presidential election, is already talking about an alliance with Chavez!

[T]his reality makes everyone - the other two Mexican parties, the US, and the rest of Latin America blanch. For Mexico, the high welfare spending should kill off all potential job growth for everyone except party bureaucrats. For the US, there's a potential Hugo Chavez on its border, one who's already talking about an oil alliance with Venezuela. Oil supplier number three teaming up with oil supplier number four to stick it to the gringos sounds like $105 a barrel oil already. For Latin America, there's one more demagogue ready to retard the region's growth by destroying Latin America's largest economy. The danger is obvious to everyone.

But so is the solution. Right now, Mexico's two other parties, PAN and PRI, have conducted legal maneuvers to knock this third-party leftist Mexican mayor out of the presidential race. They are prosecuting him over some road violation, a very trivial technicality. And that's pushed his popularity from 27% to 37% in the three-way race already.

I agree that a victory by this candidate would be a huge setback for Mexico and for the United States, but I disagree with its author's contention that keeping him from office by legal maneuvers will spark some kind of revolution.

What happens when a political establishment tries to poison its Yushchenko? Exile its Dalai Lama? Jail its Lech Walesa? The reality is, he comes back stronger. That's what's about to happen in Mexico. Be warned.

First off, I doubt that this guy is that popular. Perhaps the United States should encourage the legal "maneuver", and then lean like hell on Mexico to finally start cleaning up its act? If lawlessness is so bad there that actually enforcing a law is something that the people will "see through," what better time than the present to start enforcing the law consistently? To not prosecute this man is merely appeasement anyway. And under what context, then, would he come to power? In a nation of men, and not laws. Aside from cleaning up corruption, perhaps the winner of the next election might try actually enacting a capitalist refrom here and there? It may be true that not destroying your enemy completely can cause him to come back stronger. But the way to destroy this particular enemy might be to stop his rise to power, and then provide a viable alternative in the meantime, rather than acting like a "lite" version of said enemy. It is not inevitable that this guy will become president of Mexico.

Any one of these stories is bad enough. Put together, they are quite alarming.

Below is a brief list of my previous posts on the emerging Communist threat.

A Few Updates -- China will be able to conquer Taiwan by 2008 or 2012.

Revisiting Tiananmen -- Might the tulip revolution in Kyrgyzstan or the specter of Tiananmen (raised by negotiations concerning an E.U. arms embargo) spark revolution in China? Chavez sends troops across the border into Columbia during a visit by Donald Rumsfeld to South America.

China's Big Chance? -- The nuke crisis in North Korea is playing right into China's hands.

Outflanked by the Commies -- The Sandinistas reemerge in Nicaragua and have a natural ally in Hugo Chavez. The Central American terrorist-smuggling gang, M-13, is just across the border.

Doublespeak -- Why Red China wanted Kerry to win. Also, China is the gatekeeper of the Panama Canal, enters a trade pact with Brazil, and is caught operating a nuclear submarine in Japanese territorial waters.

-- CAV

PS: Riding Sun does a good job discussing something that has always really annoyed me about Red China: Its tendency to use the pretext of "internal affairs" as an excuse to act belligerent. This is the best way of essentializing China's basic attitude I've ever heard.

Some issues, such as its harrassment of Falun Gong members or its rollback of political freedoms in Hong Kong, China deems internal in much the same way an abusive husband might call his wife-beating a "family matter".

My big question is this. For how long is the rest of the world going to keep playing the part of the battered housewife rather than standing up to Chinese aggression?

Updates

4-7-05: (1) Added link to Riding Sun. (2) Fixed typos, courtesy of reader Adrian Hester.
4-13-05: Added an HTML anchor.
4-17-05: Added reciprocal link to index post.